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Modeling shows that Oregon dominates with COVID-19 | Coronavirus




SALEM — New pandemic modeling by the Oregon Department of Health, the Mathematical Modeling Center for Infectious Diseases, etc. shows that COVID-19 is declining across Oregon and will continue to decline in the coming months, not in the coming months. Indicates that you may return to the level.

OHA, CMMID, COVID Act Now And that Health Modeling and Evaluation Institute COVID-19 infection rates in Oregon are all less than 1.0 in all modern models, indicating that on average, new cases of the disease have less than one new case thereafter. The highest estimated transmission rate was 0.85 for IHME, while the lowest estimated transmission rate was 0.69 for CMMID.

The· Oregon Health Department ModelingPublished on Thursday, January 28th, last Thursday’s transmission rate was 0.81. Predictions about what would happen if that rate remained constant for the next few weeks would allow Oregon to allow an average of 420 new cases of COVID-19 and 13 new hospitalizations daily by February 16. I found.

By the way, Oregon has been hit by thousands of new daily infections since late October and mid-November, leading to a “two-week freeze” and then a new COVID-19 every day at that level before it leads to risk and protection. We have not consistently reported cases. Since then, Union County has been a framework trapped in the “extreme risk” category.

Institute for Health MetricsPrevious models predicted that Oregon’s COVID-19 deaths would reach 5,011 by April 1, but now the state’s deaths will reach 2,499 on May 1, “the most likely.” Predicting “high” scenarios.

The state’s death toll is 1,930, with an additional 569 expected to die in the next three months, a significant reduction in deaths from the last few months. For example, according to the Oregon Department of Health, COVID-19 in Oregon killed 565 people in December and 483 in January.

The institute also predicts that by May 1, 30.5% of Oregons will be immune to COVID-19, either by vaccination or by previous infections. This prediction assumes that previous infections provide long-term immunity.

Each model shows that the Oregons have an advantage in the Winter War with COVID-19. For example, the Mathematical Modeling Center for Infectious Diseases sets a “half time” of 7.7 days. This means that if Oregons can maintain their current levels of infection, COVID-19 infection will be halved approximately every eight days.

However, the model is not lacking in reminders of a pandemic situation and the instability of the expected recovery from the possible winter surge.

For example, OHA predicted in 1.1 what would happen if the transmission rate increased by 30%. In such situations, the average number of new hospitalizations per day reaches 720, with 24 new hospitalizations per day.

“This scenario is intended to explain what happens next month if (transmission speed) is slightly above 1 again. This prevents people from sticking to preventive recommendations. It can occur if, and / or if a highly infectious strain circulates more widely, “OHA said in a modeling report.

IHME’s “worst scenario” — a new COVID-19 variant that models what can happen if mask use is stable, is somewhat resistant to the vaccine, spreads rapidly, and people Start going out at pre-pandemic levels — Predicted 3,000 cumulative COVIDs-19 deaths, or about double the additional deaths in the next three months compared to the “most likely” scenario.

And in fact, the UK and South Africa COVID-19 variants (formally B.1.1.7 and B.1.351, respectively) have been featured in several models, which is a deteriorating factor. The severity of the factor depends on various assumptions made about the infectivity and resistance to the vaccine.

“There is no evidence that existing vaccines are less effective against mutant strains,” Lagrande’s Center for Human Development said in a statement. “They don’t seem to be causing more serious illness than we already have.”

However, the P.1 mutant that emerged in the city of Manaus, Brazil, shows signs that it may be possible to reinfect those who have already experienced COVID-19. Lancet Medical Journal An estimated 76% of Manaus people were already infected by January 27, but cases are still skyrocketing in the city. Lancet cited resistance of the P.1 mutant to COVID-19 antibody as one of the four possible explanations for the elevation.

According to OHA, the IHME, OHA, CMMID, and COVID Act Now models do not mention the Brazilian P.1 variant or the California L452R variant. The latter has been detected in Oregon.

Nevertheless, health officials have so far seen that the COVID-19 vaccine is effective in preventing moderate to severe illnesses in the subspecies, while the predicted reduction in cases envisions a bright future. So it is important to take precautions so that the diffusion rate does not increase again.

“We have done a great job as a community in our response during this difficult year. This is difficult for our community and hard to say over and over again, Individuals and communities must consistently implement mitigation measures and do their best to slow their spread, “says CHD. “Keep a distance, wear a mask, limit meetings, wash your hands frequently, and stay home if you feel unwell.”


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