100 million Covid shots do not return to normal in 100 days

In early December, Biden announced that it had promised to put 100 million covid-19 vaccines in the arms of Americans in the first 100 days, averaging about 1 million doses per day. The United States reached that pace around the time of its inauguration, but Biden will have to maintain it for the next three months in order to reach his goal.

How will everyday life change if it is realized? I asked an expert.

Can herd immunity be achieved with 100 million doses?

First, will 100 million doses mean that 100 million people will be vaccinated by April 30?

Easy answer: No.

Biden emphasizes that his goal does not mean that 100 million people will be fully vaccinated, but that 100 million injections will be given. After all, both the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines require two doses.

When first contacting Biden’s team members about this target number in early December, they said that 50 million people would receive both doses and aim to be fully vaccinated. Then, in early January, the presidential election will release most of the vaccine supply produced, rather than curbing people’s second shot doses, assuming that the new vaccine will cover booster shots on time. Said he liked. The Trump administration, which is still in office, has announced a similar plan. But even now, about two weeks after Biden’s term, confusion It continues to surround the implementation of that policy, which can affect the number of people receiving both vaccinations within the first 100 days.

so January 26 Press ConferenceBiden said the goal of achieving the 100 million shot target means that “600,000 people, perhaps less, and perhaps more than one million,” will be vaccinated at least once.

Some critics say the target number should be higher. The day before Biden suggested He eventually wants to increase the vaccination rate to 1.5 million a day.

By the end of April, whether 50 million or 60 million people were fully vaccinated, that number is still well below the norm. Herd immunity Thresholds recommended by public health professionals.

Remember Herd immunity It is achieved when a sufficient number of people in the population become resistant to the disease and the disease becomes difficult to spread. Epidemiologists estimate that at least 70% of the population needs to be protected to reach herd immunity. It is unclear how long innate immunity will last after being infected with the coronavirus, so it is recommended that even those who have been vaccinated with Covid be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Herd immunity benchmarks are higher, suggesting that they can be up to 90%In particular, some new covid variants appear to be more susceptible to infection than major US strains.

For now, let’s leave the herd immunity estimate at 70% and calculate how long it will take to reach that level.

Dr. Bruce Y. LeeA professor of health policy and management at City University of New York, explained mathematics to KHN. About 330 million people live in the United States. 70% of that number is equivalent to about 231 million people.

Currently, the United States has only two doses of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines available. This means that 462 million doses are required to fully vaccinate enough people to reach the 70% standard.

At 1 million doses per day, it takes more than 460 days. “It will reach sometime in early 2022,” Lee said.

Additional Challenge: Of the estimated 330 million people in the United States, about 70 million are children and are not yet eligible for vaccination, so the majority of adults will be vaccinated to achieve this level of herd immunity. You need to be vaccinated.

Others have sketched how the timeline accelerates when vaccination numbers improve. For example, KFF CEO Drew Altman wrote in a column that if the United States increases vaccination to 1.9 million shots a day, 70% of the population could be vaccinated by Labor Day. I am. If vaccination increases to 2.4 million daily, it is possible that the threshold will be reached by July 4. (KHN Is an editorial independent program of KFF. )

In addition, there are other vaccines in the pipeline that require only one dose. Johnson & Johnson Vaccine, And these predictions are subject to change.

At the White House’s second covid response team briefing on January 29, the team’s senior adviser Andy Slavitt said he had been vaccinated approximately 1.2 million times a day in the past week.Vaccine tracker from Bloomberg News And Washington post In addition, about 1 million people in the United States who received the first daily vaccine in the past week have been reported. And the Biden administration expects this number to increase significantly in the coming weeks and months.

However, obstacles such as lack of vaccines are imminent.

Between the Trump and Biden administrations, the United States has agreed to purchase a total of 600 million corona vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer. One-third of that amount, or 200 million, was to be delivered by the end of March. The remaining doses are not expected to arrive until late spring and summer.

“The brutal truth is that the majority of Americans will take months to get vaccinated,” Biden said. Recognized at his January 26 press conference Announced the latest US vaccine acquisition.

Difficulty in reaching people who may have problems with access to vaccines, such as local populations and colored communities, can also hinder vaccination efforts. In addition, certain individuals may hesitate or refuse to be vaccinated.

When will life return to normal?

What if I became one of the lucky people to be vaccinated during the first 100 days of Biden’s vaccination?

According to public health experts, people are still unable to return to pre-pandemic activities. Normality does not return until more than 70% of vaccinated Americans are approached.

“Even if we get a second vaccination before we vaccinate the majority of people, we still have to take the same precautions as before we were vaccinated,” it’s hard to hear. Dr. Rachel Vrieman, Director of the Arnhold Institute for Global Health at Mount Sinai School of Medicine in New York City.

This means that even if you are vaccinated, you still need to wear a mask, stay away from people outside the house, stay at home and wash your hands regularly. The same precautions are recommended for those who are not vaccinated by April 30.

Vreeman added that one to two weeks after receiving the second vaccination, covid is less likely to get a serious illness. But you can still get sick. It can also infect other people who have not yet been vaccinated. Clinical trials of the corona vaccine did not assess whether asymptomatic infections stopped only if symptoms were alleviated.

“Immediately after the end of April, for the average American, there will be no dramatic change in what they see in terms of social distance and masking,” he said. LJ tongue, Chief Strategy Officer Vaccination Action Union, A non-profit organization that distributes vaccine information in collaboration with the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Jeffrey ShamanA professor of environmental health at Columbia University, the state said it needed to maintain strict restrictions during the vaccine distribution process, including those related to face covering, telecommuting, and limited travel.so Recent modeling researchSherman and his colleagues have discovered that if such restrictions were lifted this month, an additional 29 million covid infections could occur by the summer. He recommends keeping them in place until July.

“The bottom line is that if you lift the restrictions and return to the pre-pandemic state, the virus will reappear,” Sherman said. “Then the competition for vaccines will be complicated as more people get sick.”

Experts also said that it is important to take precautions seriously, as multiple covid mutants are widespread in the United States, some of which appear to be highly contagious. In addition, the fewer people get sick, the less likely the virus will replicate, mutate again, and create more variants.

When will it return to normal? It depends on the rate of vaccination and how many Americans are willing to roll up their sleeves.

“I think we’ll come back to life in the fall, preferably before Thanksgiving,” Tan said.

Other experts we asked said it could appear to return to normal in the summer.

But they all agreed, it certainly won’t happen by April 30th.