Health
Colorado in “a really good place right now” at COVID-19 — and probably ahead of the British variant | Denver Gazette
According to a new journal article published on Sunday, cases of highly contagious British variants of COVID have nearly doubled each week, rapidly becoming the new predominant strain in the United States, minimizing illness and death. It is positioned as “quick and decisive action is required” to suppress it. On the website related to Yale University.
However, according to a state model, this variant, known as B.1.1.7, may have a minor impact on Colorado infectious diseases, hospitalizations, and deaths, according to an assistant professor at the Colorado School of Public Health. Yes, says Dr. Elizabeth Carlton, a member of Colorado. State COVID-19 modeling team. At least that’s what the team’s latest model shows, and we expect variants to account for half of the state’s COVID cases by early March.
A national survey published Sunday by medRxiv, an online archive of unpeer-reviewed unpublished manuscripts co-founded by Yale University and The British Medical Journal, suggests that this variant may have spread in the United States since the very end. It turned out to be highly sexual. Although it was first confirmed nationwide in late December in the year, it was in Colorado.
Do you think the COVID forecast in Colorado was tough in 2020? Experts say it will be even tougher in 2021
The variant is “almost certainly destined” to become the predominant COVID strain in many states by March, the article argued, citing “significant community infections.” The findings are consistent with recent modeling performed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The fact that variants remain relatively infrequently in the United States allows “time to implement the necessary surveillance programs and mitigation efforts in the coming weeks,” the article said. “Unless decisive and immediate public health measures are taken,” the variant “is likely to have catastrophic consequences” in the United States within “months.”
Colorado officials on Monday did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the study.
According to the state’s COVID-19 dashboard, 37 “variants of concern” have been identified in the state as of Monday, and 16 are under investigation. The dashboard does not distinguish between highly contagious UK variants and other variants. At least 20 cases of this variant have been identified in Colorado, according to a Friday news release from Colorado. He added that less than one-third of the positive COVID-19 samples across the state were screened for variants.
“What happened in the UK seems to indicate that it could happen in the United States in terms of the spread of varieties,” Carlton said. “What is clear from the emergence of this variant is that (COVID-19) is in a good fight to stay with us for a long time.”
She added that the state modeling team is currently working on a scenario that assumes that variants (potentially more deadly and more contagious) will account for 90% of cases by early March.
Colorado “is in a really good place right now,” Carlton said of COVID-19. “We see a continuous decline in this hospitalization, which is really encouraging.”
If the variant spreads rapidly in Colorado and the state identifies a 20% drop in transmission control (an indicator of how compliant Colorado is with pandemic-related behavior and policy changes), this Up to the largest COVID peak, Carlton, can occur. He talked about the team’s latest report, which was released on February 3rd and posted online on Monday.
In such a scenario, the state could cause a cumulative total of 8,370 COVID-19 deaths by the end of the year.
“It probably won’t exceed the capacity of the hospital, but it’s really unpleasant and will cause a lot of deaths,” Carlton said.
But “at this point, it doesn’t seem likely to happen,” she said. “I think this is a concern, but it’s not the time for a full-blown panic in Colorado.”
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