How can I prevent the covid-19 peak from repeating in the future?

According to modeling studies, a combination of a strong vaccination program and strict physical distance rules may be sufficient to prevent a recurrence peak of covid-19 without significantly restricting the movement of people.

Survey results published in the journal Natural human behaviorHelps policy makers and public health authorities identify the appropriate level of intervention to control the outbreak of covid-19 over the long term.

In this study, anonymous mobile phone geolocation data and epidemiological and coronavirus case data from China were used to model the potential impact of vaccination and physical distance on viral infections.

Researchers at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom and the Chinese University of Hong Kong have predicted the impact of various combinations of interventions on low, medium and high density cities in the country.

They said the effect of physical distance in containing the future resurrection of covid-19 largely depends on the intensity of the measurements, population density, and availability of the vaccine over time and geographic area.

Researchers sought to gain a deeper understanding of the relationships between these factors.

Cities with a small population and effective vaccinations can completely stop infection without the need for physical distance

They predict that in most cities, combining vaccination programs with physical distance will be sufficient to curb the resurrection of the virus without the need to enforce curfew.

In this study, containment was defined as maintaining a low transmission rate, or “R” number, below 1. This means that one infected person will not spread the virus to more than one person.

Researchers have pointed out that in medium-density and densely populated cities, both vaccination and distance are needed to prevent future violent waves of covid-19 until herd immunity is reached.

Herd immunity occurs when many people (usually 70%) acquire immunity to an infectious disease after being infected with the infectious disease.

However, the team suggests that cities with small populations and effective vaccinations may be able to completely stop the infection without the need for physical distance.

Researchers say that a complete “house ban” blockade will no longer be necessary in all cities.

The results also suggest that strong physical distance interventions performed in a short period of time may be more effective than mild long-term interventions, they said.

Shengjie Lai, a senior researcher at the university, said: Of Southampton.

“Our study was based on data from China, but our methods and findings are applicable to cities around the world with the same level of population density and social contact patterns,” Lai said. Mr. says.

Researchers have stated that previous studies have assumed that as people reduce their mobility, their social contact decreases proportionally.

However, this is not always the case, and as the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine comes online, there is an urgent need to understand the relationship between these factors, they said.

Researchers are aware of some limitations to the study, including lack of data on the contributions of hand washing and face masks and vaccine supply challenges.

However, they emphasize that they can quickly adapt their approach to provide near real-time data to meet new time-critical needs.

While the use of face masks has been touted as an important factor in reducing the number of covid-19 infections, recent studies have also provided evidence to emphasize the importance of social and physical distance. .. A study conducted by researchers at The Ohio State University found that following health advice and moving away from others reduces the likelihood that an individual will be infected with covid-19.

For a study published earlier this month Minutes of the National Academy of Sciences, Researchers present participants with virtual behavioral scenarios of various public places (grocery stores, crowded beaches, pedestrian crossings) and their own or fictitious people based on their social distance preferences. I asked you to put it in the context.

Four months later, the same participants were asked if they tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 or if they believed they were ill in the case of covid-19. Statistical analysis showed that the more participants in the scenario prefer social distance, the less likely they are infected with covid-19.