Coronavirus variants are more likely to cause a new wave of infection in the spring, some experts say.

First a new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus Detected in the UK Several experts predicted on Tuesday that it was likely to help the incident surge in the spring.

A variant called B.1.1.7 was suspected of causing a new spread in the United Kingdom. This is found in many parts of the United States. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that this variant accounts for more than 1,880 cases in 45 states.

Trevor Bedford of the University of Washington and the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center said the variant could “become a wave” around April or May.

So how can the United States prevent the suspicious spring surge? Some experts said on Tuesday that the best way to get ahead of the surge is through vaccination.

Bedford, who is closely tracking the rise of new coronavirus variants, predicts that mitigation efforts such as vaccination and mask use and continued social distance expansion will help prevent further spread of the virus. did.

“I think things will still be in control in the summer, and the virus will rarely circulate,” he said.

But according to Bedford, a new surge could begin in the fall.

Dr. Josh Schiffer, an infectious disease specialist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, agreed.

“I think it will be difficult to completely prevent the fourth wave in newly infected variants,” said Schiffer, who models the pattern of spread.

This week usa Covid-19 deaths over 500,000.. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said a major tragedy was avoided.

“It’s painful to see people begging or denying people to do the work you know, such as wearing a mask or separating your body,” said the director. One Dr. Anthony Fauci said. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

“It was actually a pain for me to see the hospital overwhelmed by Covid-19 patients,” he said. “There were people in the same area who denied this was happening. Scammers. ‘So how can you say that people in your own state, your own city, your own county are dying? “

“Today, I see 500,000 Americans who have died so far,” Forch said.

“It’s proof of what’s really happening. You can’t deny it.”

The death toll from Covid-19 in the United States is much higher than in any other country, more than double that of Brazil, according to Johns Hopkins University. data The number of virus-related deaths is the second highest.

Experts said several factors contributed to an unnecessarily brutal pandemic, including a lack of clear messages from national, state and local leaders. It’s too early to loosen the restrictions, Big Holiday celebration And Continued resistance to wearing a face mask Or social distance.

Vaccination competition

More than 44.5 million people have been vaccinated at least once, according to data on Tuesday. CDC..

According to the CDC, about 19.8 million people are fully vaccinated at both doses. This is about 6% of the US population.

The United States can expect a total of 240 million Covid-19 vaccines by the end of March, according to a prepared statement from the vaccine makers to the House subcommittee that held a hearing on Tuesday.

Pfizer and Moderna (two companies using the Covid-19 vaccine, which is licensed for emergency use in the United States) have promised to ship a total of 220 million vaccines by the end of March. ..

That would be enough to vaccinate 110 million Americans, as both vaccines require two doses.

Johnson & Johnson, who has not yet received an emergency use authorization for the Covid-19 vaccine, has promised to enable 20 million doses in the same time frame. The vaccine only needs to be administered once.

Pfizer said it expects to increase shipable doses from about 4 to 5 million doses per week in early February to more than 13 million doses per week by mid-March.

“We plan to ship 120 million doses by the end of March and another 80 million by the end of May, and we expect all 300 million contract doses to be available by the end of July. It will enable vaccination of up to 150 million Americans, “the company said in a prepared statement.

Another company licensed for the Covid-19 vaccine, Moderna, plans to receive 100 million doses by the end of March, doubling monthly production to more than 40 million doses by April. Said that.

“Based on this progress in manufacturing scale-up, we recently agreed to increase delivery times. We are currently aiming for 200 million doses by the end of May and 300 million doses by the end of July,” Moderna said. Says. With that prepared remark.

The director of NIH states that a single dose of the vaccine may be sufficient.

For those who are already infected with the coronavirus, a single dose of the Pfizer or modelna vaccine may be sufficient, but further research is needed to show that, Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health. Doctor I wrote in a blog post on Tuesday..

“More research is needed and we are not suggesting changes to current recommendations, but the results are a single dose for people infected with SARS-CoV-2 and already generated. Increases the likelihood that is sufficient. Antibodies to the virus, “Collins wrote.

He referred to a recent preprint of a small NIH-funded study of 109 people who had already received the first dose of Pfizer or Modelna vaccine.

For 41 people who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibody prior to the first injection, the immune response to the first dose was “equal to, or even better than, the response to the second dose in those who did not. It turned out to be good. infection.

“If other studies support these results, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration may decide to consider whether a single dose is sufficient for people who have previously been infected with COVID-19. Well, such a policy has already been considered in France and, if implemented, would help expand the supply of vaccines and get more people to get vaccinated sooner, “Collins wrote.

“But more data is needed to seriously consider this option, and expert advisors from the FDA and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention need to make decisions.”

So far, according to Collins, the most important thing everyone should do is to follow the three Ws: wear a mask, wash their hands, and monitor distance. “As soon as the vaccine is available, I’ll roll up my sleeves.”

What Americans have to do to “return to normal”

Many states I’m seeing the Covid-19 numbers improve, Experts say It’s definitely not time to stop precautions -In particular Annoying coronavirus mutant It keeps spreading.

“The best way for us to get back to normal is to double down now. Other things we know are at risk of removing the mask, eating indoors, and rekindling the outbreak. Don’t do it, “says Dr. Craig Spencer. New York Presbyterian / Director of Global Health in Emergency Medicine at Columbia University Irving Medical Center.

“The vast majority of people in this country, despite previous infections and two months of vaccination, still have no protection against Covid and can become infected,” Spencer said. “This isn’t over, so we need to double it.”

This means keeping your mask on, staying away from others, avoiding crowded areas, and washing your hands regularly.

CNN’s Naomi Thomas, Jacqueline Howard, Christopher Rios, Jen Christensen, and Michael Nedermann contributed to this report.