Health
Coronavirus herd immunity can reach by spring: UAB
Birmingham, Alabama — Almost a year after the first known case of COVID-19 was diagnosed in Alabama, researchers at the University of Alabama at Birmingham said the United States could reach herd immunity to the virus by the end of spring. It states.
UAB experts say that at least 3.5 million people must be infected with the virus or vaccinated in Alabama before the state can reach herd immunity. So far, the Alabama Public Health Service has confirmed just under 500,000 viruses, and about 213,000 people have been fully vaccinated. However, these numbers do not necessarily mean far from herd immunity, according to state epidemiologist Dr. Susanne Judd. Faculty of Public Health At UAB.
Based on the number of vaccinations already undertaken, and findings from a recent study by Columbia University, Judd estimates that the country may reach herd immunity by May. As of the end of January, more than one-third of the US population was already infected with the coronavirus, according to a Colombian survey.
“How quickly Alabama can reach the immunized 3.5 million people is determined by the number of people who have been positively tested, the number of people who have been infected with COVID but have never been positively tested,” That’s three of the number of people who have been vaccinated, “says Judd. “There is great data to know how many people are positive and how many are vaccinated. From there, based on studies that tested immunity, we were immunized but vaccinated. You can estimate the number of people who have never tested positive. Blood. These numbers can be combined to make an estimate of when to reach mass immunity in May of this year. “
Reaching herd immunity does not eradicate the virus, Judd said.
“I think COVID-19 will be prevalent in the United States,” Judd said. “This is like a seasonal flu that we have to tolerate on a regular basis. It has an isolated outbreak and can occur in a weakly immune population. It’s like the flu. It means that there will be a strong vaccination campaign. People had to be kept away from the hospital. “
Judd also said another positive trend in reducing the severity of COVID-19 cases was a reduction in the number of hospitalizations and deaths.
“We saw a sharp drop in hospitalization rates last month and a half, probably due to monoclonal antibody therapy, but maybe due to vaccines,” Judd said. “If people are vaccinated but infected, the cases may be milder than if they were not vaccinated, resulting in lower hospitalization rates.”
Judd said it is important to reach a larger community with vaccines.
“We need to have consistent vaccinations in many different populations,” Judd said. “We can’t leave people behind. To prevent the spread of the virus, we need to make sure that the vaccine has penetrated all communities to get its basic level of immunity.”
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