“Everything looks very sparse”: Variants threaten NYC virus progress

New York City has seen since the peak of the holiday surge in early January Rapid decrease As in states and countries, an increasing number of people are testing for coronavirus every day.

However, this decline is not as dramatic as national, and community infections in the city are still high, with about 3,200 possible new cases reported daily. According to city data, as highly contagious variants spread, the city’s positive test rate slowly declined, rising from 8% two weeks ago to over 7.1% this week.

Dr. Wafaa El Saddle, an epidemiologist at Columbia University’s School of Public Health, Merman, said: “Everything seems to be very dilute and fragile.” Overall, we see a decline, but it’s moving incredibly slowly. In a way, it’s more than the decline seen elsewhere in the country. It’s late. “

Two studies published online this week but not yet peer-reviewed New variant of New York CityWas first detected in samples collected in November and began to spread. This variant, called B.1.526, shared similar characteristics to the variants found in South Africa and Brazil that have been shown to reduce vaccine efficacy.

At this point, it’s unclear what the new variant will mean in the long run, as authorities still don’t know what the impact will actually be.

“For now, this should be considered a variant of interest. It’s interesting and needs to be tracked,” Dr. Jay Balma, senior adviser to the mayor’s office, said at a press conference Thursday. Said. “But that doesn’t change anything about our public health concerns.”

The presence of the variant may require fully vaccinated people to receive a third booster by the end of the year. But most importantly, it emphasizes the need for more people to be vaccinated as soon as possible.

How many variants are there in the city?

As of Wednesday, authorities are publicly tracking only the more contagious B.1.1.7 variant found first in the UK, accounting for approximately 6.2% of cases in the second week of February. Said that.

The variant was first detected in New York in early January and continues to spread. It was detected in 2.7% of cases sequenced in New York City between January 11th and January 31st. data Released weekly by the city. In the first week of February, that number soared to 7 percent.

However, two studies published online this week California Institute of Technology And Columbia University, Suggesting that more variants are spreading throughout the city. Apart from the discovery of new variants These researchers discovered Two cases, one that first appeared in South Africa and one that occurred in Brazil that has not yet been publicly reported by the city or state.

City officials said This new study was not shared with the city prior to its release.

Nationally, researchers have focused primarily on the first variants discovered in the United Kingdom due to their widespread use.According to one study, a case of B.1.1.7 Doubles about every 10 days.. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predicts that the B.1.1.7 mutant, which is estimated to be 35-45% more contagious, could become a major source of infection nationwide in March.

How does the city provide vaccinations?

1 Sign of encouragement In terms of deployment, there was a sharp drop in positive test rates among New Yorkers over the age of 75, probably due to vaccination, compared to New Yorkers as a whole. In addition, admission to the emergency room for people aged 65 and over is stable and is gradually decreasing.

Epidemiologists say these numbers target vaccination of people most likely to be hospitalized and killed by the virus, especially as the first variants detected in the UK become more common in the city. He says he emphasizes the importance of that.

As of Tuesday, the city was partially or completely vaccinated About 1 million people, Is a major milestone in rollouts. About 500,000 of them received both shots.

However, vaccine deployment is heterogeneous across racial groups, with people most affected by the virus being vaccinated at lower rates.For example, we recognize that almost a quarter of New Yorkers are black, but blacks 12 percent According to city statistics, of vaccination.

In addition, data show that about a quarter of people who are fully vaccinated in New York City do not live in New York City, but live outside the city. It is unknown how many people were qualified because they worked in the city or were vaccinated at the state site, and how many people violated the rules.

The pace of recent vaccinations has also slowed slower than the city hoped, as supply shortages were exacerbated by delayed deliveries due to bad weather. Last week, the city administered about 30,000 vaccines per day, with a peak daily dose of 60,000 the previous week.

New York State Rank According to the New York Times vaccine tracker, the percentage of people in the state who have been vaccinated at least once is declining.

Should the state reopen so much?

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo has resumed activity as the number of cases and positive rates tend to drop to pre-vacation levels. Major sports stadiums and arenas Has a capacity of 10,000 or more Movie theater In the city or wedding hall.

Cuomo said he didn’t want to keep things closed just because the variant was here.

“We look at the data every day and adjust this,” said Gareth Rose, a member of Mr. Cuomo’s National Task Force on Coronavirus. “You have to be very, very careful, but you also have to realize that the economy cannot be kept closed indefinitely.”

But experts are concerned. They say it is more important than ever to keep the community out of infection with the arrival of variants.

“It doesn’t make any epidemiological sense to me,” said Dr. Denis Nash, an epidemiologist at City University of New York. “On the other hand, you can see how it makes sense economically. In the short term, it will help restaurant workers’ profits and employers, but it puts employees at risk. It also aims to cross the larger goal of vaccination of as many weapons as possible before the virus gets the vaccine. “

Dr. El Salvador added: “I don’t think it’s time to resume more. I think it’s time to focus on expanding vaccination.”

Dr. Michael Osterholm, Director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research Policy, University of Minnesota, New paper Vaccination needed to be sped up and more targeted to people over the age of 65 who were at greatest risk of death as the UK outbreaks became established.

According to disease experts, this race is currently between the subspecies and the vaccine, and the surest way to win is to vaccinate as soon as possible while controlling the infection as much as possible.

“The major peaks of cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the near future may still be strong,” the paper said.

Joseph Goldstein contributed to the report.