Coronavirus infections are slowing down in the UK – REACT study | Imperial News

Coronavirus infections continue to decline in the UK, according to new REACT data, but not at the rapid rate seen in early February.

The study, the largest program of home coronavirus testing, tested more than 163,500 people nationwide between February 4 and 23, and one in 204, or 0.49% of the population, is currently infected. I found that there is.

This is a decrease of more than two-thirds of January 1 in 64 infected (1.57%), and similar prevalence Recent interim findings of the study When 1 in 200 people were infected with the virus, that is, 0.51% as of February 13, it means that the rate of decrease is slowing down.

“These new discoveries reinforce the need to help everyone keep up with the rules and control infections.” Professor Paul Elliott Faculty of Public Health, Empire

Researchers at Imperial College London have found that the national level reproduction number (R) is 0.86. This means that the epidemic is still shrinking, as each infected person on average infects less than one person with the virus. However, it varies from country to country, and the study suggests that infections are rising again in London, the Southeast, and Midland.

Professor Paul Elliott, director of the REACT program at the Imperial School of Public Health, said: “The reduction in infectious diseases observed in the survey since January indicates that national public health measures are working, but these show that there is clear growth in some areas. New findings reinforce the need to help everyone continue to follow the rules and control infections. At this critical time when the blockade will soon be eased, our actions will make us all You need to avoid risking an increase in infections that can prolong the limits you want to avoid. “

Results of these ongoing findings Real-time assessment of community infections (REACT 1) A program led by Imperial and implemented in collaboration with Ipsos Mori, Available in preprint report Submitted for peer review.

Coronavirus infection trends

Of the 78,047 swab tests performed at home later in the study round from February 13 to 23, 301 were positive and the infection rate was 0.47%, or 47 per 10,000 infected. This is compared to 51 per 10,000 in the first half of the February 4-12 survey round.

Throughout the study round, the prevalence was found to be 0.49% and the rate of new infections was halved every 31 days.

Compared to January survey results, infections have been reduced by at least half in all age groups, currently having the lowest prevalence (0.21%) in people over 65 and the highest in children aged 13-17. (0.71%).

“Given all the sacrifices we made last year, it’s not time to risk returning to a higher level of infection.” Professor Stephen Riley Professor of Imperial Infectious Disease Dynamics

Prevalence has also declined significantly across all regions since January, but growth and decline patterns have varied across the country throughout this test round. In the northeast, northwest, east and southwest England, infections declined throughout the study round, but infection rates were stable in Yorkshire and Hamburg. Conversely, infections are clearly increasing in London, Southeast, East Midland, and West Midland.

The pattern was also uneven across London, with a clear decrease in the north and east of London and a clear increase in the west and south of London.

Professor Steven Riley, a professor of infectious disease dynamics at the Imperial University, said: “As the decline in new infection rates slows, we need to ensure that we don’t go back to increasing infections. In the coming weeks and months, millions more people in the UK will be protected by the vaccine. Let’s. Given all the sacrifices we made last year, it’s not time to risk returning to a higher level of infection. “

Identifying at-risk groups

Ethnic minorities are twice as likely to be infected with Asians as whites (0.91% vs. 0.45%), with the highest prevalence among Pakistani individuals at 2.1%. Blacks also had a high risk of 0.83%.

“There are several sources of concern that our hard-earned progress may be slowing down.” Matt Hancock Secretary of Health and Welfare

Healthcare workers and long-term care workers were at 40% to 50% higher risk of infection than other workers. Participants who worked on public transport had twice the risk of positive tests compared to those who did not, and those who worked in education, school, nursery, or childcare had those who did not. By comparison, the risk of infection was 20% to 40% higher. Work with those settings. People who were required to work from home had a 30% to 40% lower risk of infection than those who did not.

Matt Hancock, Secretary of Health, said: “It’s encouraging to see continuous evidence that the number of incidents is declining overall. I would like to thank everyone who has followed the rules and supported each other through this pandemic.

“It’s important to be vigilant, as there are several sources of concern that hard-earned progress may slow down and reverse in some areas. This is for all of us.

“We have come up with a cautious but irreversible approach to relaxing the restrictions, but we all need to remember that the virus is still here and dangerous until we reach each milestone. Practice your hands, face, and space, and when you receive the invitation, get a jab and stay home so that you can further reduce the infection. “

Understand the infection level of the community

REACT1 study Tracks current coronavirus infections within the community by testing more than 150,000 randomly selected people each month for two weeks. This survey recruits new people each month to ensure that the sample represents a larger population and provides high-resolution snapshots of the situation over a specific time period.

This is different from the ONS COVID-19 infection survey. This study runs continuously and samples the same person over time to understand home infections. This sometimes means that they report different numbers, as studies use different methods.

“The potential shallowing of decline reinforces the message that we must all continue to stick to the measures being taken as long as necessary.” Kelly beaver Managing Director-Public Relations, Ipsos MORI

People who volunteer for REACT take their throat and nose swabs at home and analyze them in the laboratory using a technique called RT-PCR. These findings help guide public health measures to help governments better respond to pandemics as the situation progresses.

Kelly Beaver, Managing Director of Public Relations at Ipsos MORI, said: “A 50% reduction in prevalence in all age groups is welcome, demonstrating an ongoing struggle against this pandemic. We can continue on the path set out in the Prime Minister’s roadmap. So, while strengthening the message that we all must continue to stick to the measures being taken as long as necessary, the potential shallowing of decline.

“For the coming weeks and months to advance the roadmap milestone, REACT research will continue to be an important data source to help governments understand the virus. Of the people who participated in the research. Thank you for your important contribution. “

Access the survey results from here..