New studies suggest that Covid-19 could spread worldwide due to a “perfect storm” condition and was rarely a pandemic virus.
Researchers at the University of Arizona have discovered that the virus can spread rapidly due to bad luck and the congestion of the Wuhan South Sea Products Market. They believe that the market is not its origin, but the place where Covid-19 began to spread.
Researchers found that the first market-related case group was likely to have occurred in Hubei Province, China, a month or two earlier than the recorded late December 2019.
Professor Michael Wolloway, who was involved in the study, points out quite strongly that the study “is not the original source of the virus, but the first place to encounter one of these super-spreading events. “.
“It was a perfect storm. I found that I had to take one or two lucky breaks to really take hold,” said an evolutionary biologist. CNN..
“If things were a little different, if the first person to bring it to the South China Market decided not to go that day, or if they were just at home due to illness, or other early super-popularity. The event may not have happened. We may not even know about it. “
By tracking mutations retroactively, scientists estimated how and when the virus first appeared and conducted modeling exercises on how the virus spreads.
the studyPublished in the journal Science, “Our results define the period from mid-October to mid-November 2019 as the plausible interval at which the first case of SARS-CoV-2 appeared in Hubei Province. . “
In modeling performed by Arizona scientists, they found that the virus only spreads and takes off about 30% of the time. In other situations, after infecting only a few people, it should have become extinct, the exercise showed.
In order for the virus to survive, the infected person needs to be in contact with many others, including a packed market.
Professor Wolobay said that if “luckily” these conditions cannot be found, even “well-adapted” viruses may disappear.
He suggested that Covid-19 “scattered” to a small number of people between October and December before entering the South China Market.
“It gives you some perspective-these events are probably happening much more often than we are aware of. They are not completely successful and we are about them. I’ve never heard of it, “added the professor.
However, scientists could not conclude where the virus first occurred because their method was “geographically insensitive.”
In their report, it says:
“The lack of reports of COVID-19 elsewhere in China in November and early December suggests that Hubei was the first place to establish a human-to-human transmission chain. . “
Public health expert William Hanage, who was not involved in the study, said the conclusions of the study were “very, very plausible” and that the study was a “backward” estimate of the origin of the outbreak.
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