Connect with us


Modeling predicts SARS-CoV-2 circulating faster than previously thought




The end of December is considered to be the beginning of COVID-19. It was then that the Wuhan City Health Commission reported a group of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. From there, the virus is identified, sequenced, and the rest, as they say, is history. But is this certainly the first time SARS-CoV-2 first appeared in humans? Or could it have been circulating in the population at the beginning of the year?

Researchers sought to answer this question by simulating the early stages of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in Wuhan, China. They concluded that the virus was likely to circulate faster than described, perhaps even in mid-October 2019.

This work is published in Science, In the treatise, “Timing of SARS-CoV-2 probands in Hubei.

It is unknown when SARS-CoV-2 first began to infect humans. The new study, led by Dr. Joel Wortheim, a part-time professor of medicine at the University of California, San Diego, found that the first described cluster of COVID-19 related to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in late December 2019 was COVID from early December- Nineteen cases had no market connection, marking the beginning of a pandemic. In addition, a newspaper report by the Chinese government details a daily retrospective COVID-19 diagnosis dating back to November.

Perhaps to more accurately estimate the timing of the first SARS-CoV-2 case in Hubei, China, Jonathan Pekar, a PhD student at the University of California, San Diego, used a combined approach. Together with a colleague, he first applied Bayesian molecular clock phylogeny to estimate the timing of the latest common ancestor of sampled strains of the virus. More specifically, they adopted a “coalescence framework for combining retrospective molecular clock inference.” They combined it with a forward epidemiological simulation to determine when SARS-CoV-2 could have been circulating before the era of the latest common ancestor.

Based on their simulations, the authors predict that the period from mid-October to mid-November 2019 will be defined as the plausible interval at which the first case of SARS-CoV-2 appeared in Hubei Province. did.

Their simulations considered that the first SARS-CoV-2 variant to emerge might be less compatible than the more widespread variant. Therefore, the authors simulated a two-phase epidemic in which the first case was infected with an extinct, incompatible mutant, but not before the development of a persistent mutant strain.

By characterizing the potential dynamics of the virus before it was discovered, the authors found that “more than two-thirds of zoonotic diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 are self-limiting. , Extinguishes without causing a pandemic. “

They added that the estimated prevalence of the virus was too low to be detected for weeks or months. By the time COVID-19 was first identified, the virus had become established in Wuhan. This delay highlights the difficulty of monitoring pathogens for zoonotic diseases that are highly contagious and have moderate mortality.

Understanding when SARS-CoV-2 emerged is to assess current approaches to monitoring pathogens for new zoonotic diseases and to understand the failure of early containment and mitigation efforts for COVID-19. It is important.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos

Pictures Credit


to request, modification Contact us at Here or [email protected]