Hidden victims of COVID in Africa threaten the development of a pandemic

Africa is suffering Approximately 3 million COVID-19 cases At least officially since the beginning of the pandemic. The relatively low number of reported cases on the continent has puzzled scientists and prompted many theories about its exceptionism, from the young population to the rapid and aggressive blockade of the country.

But many Serum prevalence surveyUsing blood tests to identify whether people have antibodies from a previous infection with the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) significantly underestimates the COVID burden in African countries. Indicates that you are. Experts warn that underestimation can increase the risk of widespread disease, impede vaccine deployment and uptake, and ultimately threaten global efforts to control pandemics. New mutations are likely to occur in areas where the virus circulates, especially in areas where access to the vaccine is low, and it is important to identify them quickly.

Viral variants are already complicating the promotion of vaccination around the world.New arrival SARS-CoV-2 variant First detected in South Africa, Brazil and the United Kingdom are concerns that they may become more infectious and the vaccines available may be less effective.And the pharmaceutical company Develop vaccine boosters to protect against them.. (Currently approved vaccines still provide strong protection against serious illness and death.)

Undiagnosed infections of COVID in African countries increase the risk of new variants colonizing the population before authorities have the opportunity to detect them and prevent their spread, he said. Richard Ressels, South Africa’s KwaZulu Natal Research Innovation Sequence Platform Infectious Disease Epidemiologist. The country has the highest number of cases recorded on the continent (many of which were caused by new variants). Authorities also suspect that the surveillance network is infected only once in every 10 infections.

Mutations occur spontaneously as the virus replicates and spreads. Many of them are harmless, but they can make the pathogen more contagious and DeadlyAs seen in the first SARS-CoV-2 variant detected in the United Kingdom

“If we allow it to continue to spread, it will continue to evolve,” warns Ressels, who was part of the team that first identified the new variant in South Africa. The threat of mutation is greater if the virus travels unimpeded over a large area of ​​the country’s or region’s population. Ressels emphasizes that Africa is not a “problem” and that new varieties can emerge just as easily elsewhere. Rather, the issue is vaccine fairness. “It’s clear that leaving Africa at the forefront of vaccines risks making infection more difficult to control,” he says.

Underestimation of COVID cases leads to the story that African countries do not need vaccines as urgently as other countries. After all, if you have relatively few cases and deaths, you might say, “Good, no problem. No vaccine needed.” Maison Dahab, London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine Infectious Disease Epidemiologist. In her study About 2 percent The rate of COVID deaths in Khartoum, Sudan, was correctly attributed to the illness from April to September last year.

Many African countries start Limited vaccination program mainly procured through: COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access (COVAX) Facility.. Vaccines are assigned to healthcare professionals and very vulnerable groups. As a result of global demand, and because rich countries are storing doses, it is not possible to inoculate the entire African country in the short to medium term.

Today, the richest countries that make up 16 percent of the world’s population Buy 60% Tedros Adhanom Gebreyes, Director of the World Health Organization, wrote about global vaccine supply: Foreign policy last month. “Many of these countries aim to vaccinate 70 percent of the adult population by mid-year to pursue herd immunity,” he writes.

Vaccine-induced herd immunity is unlikely to occur in African countries in the near future. COVAX co-leader spokesperson GAVI, Vaccine Alliance,Said Scientific American This initiative aims to vaccinate 20 percent of the people in Member States by the end of the year. “The work on COVAX is still in its infancy. It is very important that manufacturers continue to support COVAX and that the government refrain from bilateral transactions that deprive the market of more supply,” said a spokesman.

However, if there are few cases of COVID reported, authorities may have difficulty persuading people to be shot, even if they are in a position to do so.The low number of reported illnesses has been enhanced Vaccine hesitant,warning Catherine KyobutungiSecretary-General of the African Center for Population and Health Research in Nairobi, Kenya. “People are asking why they need vaccination when they have already cleared the virus without a vaccine,” she says.

There were officially 122,000 cases in Kenya, but according to a survey of blood banks across the country, 5% of over 3,000 samples The ones taken between April and June last year contained SARS-CoV-2 antibodies.Extrapolated, this discovery Millions of possibilities Some scientists are investigating Not representative It may have had a general population and distorted consequences.Nevertheless, the country is aiming for vaccination 30 percent of its populationBy 2023, Kyobunki will describe it as “Umino Sizuku.”

Due to lack of widespread access to vaccines, African countries rely on basic public health measures such as wearing masks and washing hands only to control the spread of the disease. And, as with vaccinations, people can dismiss these measures as unnecessary if the numbers misrepresent the risk of infection.

Kyobutungi warns that the government may also take statistics at face value and curtail its efforts to monitor COVID. That is, “until something terrible happens, or a year later, until there is a variant of Malawi, a variant of Uganda, or a variant of Sudan,” she says. “If a new deadly subspecies emerges in Africa, Africa will either be separated from the rest of the world, or the subspecies will spread as in the first case in China. Then there are cases everywhere and we We need to vaccinate the world again. “

However, some people are less concerned about underestimation and its potential consequences. Epidemiologist Salim Abdool Karim, co-leader of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Board, estimates that the only way to fully protect the population is “everyone may be infected,” including wearing masks. It states that everyone should have insurance. “Vaccines are an important and perhaps the most important part of our preventive toolbox,” says Abdool Karim. “But that’s not enough.”

Ngoy Nsenga, WHO Africa’s Emergency Response Program Manager, agrees that variants are a concern and that the best response is to implement public health interventions. “Of course, I wish we had a vaccine that would vaccinate everyone and stop the chain of infections, but that’s not possible because of the availability,” he says.

Without global co-vaccination, COVID will continue to spread. With this disease, African countries “have been here for a long time,” says Nsenga. And if it applies to the continent, it may also apply to other parts of the world. “If there are unsafe places and countries in this world, there is no safe country,” he says.

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