The number of COVID-19 in Michigan is increasing at a “troublesome” pace. What’s wrong?

Michigan is currently showing the country’s fastest-growing case rate of COVID-19, calling for caution from health authorities in the state.

The state ranks second only to New Jersey in terms of average number of new cases per capita. The Sam region, Macomb County, and Jackson County boast the highest transmission speeds in the country.

The state’s seven-day average of new cases has doubled since March 15, reaching its highest point in 2021. The positive rate on Friday was 10.6% as a result of the coronavirus diagnostic test.

Of further concern is the surge in hospitalizations. As of Friday, 1,940 people were hospitalized with COVID-19. This doubled in less than three weeks.

Jim Lee, Michigan Health Hospital Association’s Vice President of Data Policy and Analysis, said:

Dr. Liam Sullivan, a spectrum health infectious disease specialist at Grand Rapids, said: “Why is that a good question. I have doubts about myself because there are many other states that are far more open than us.”

What’s wrong?

No one knows for sure, but experts say it’s probably a combination of factors.

The following shows various possible theories and factors.

Resumption of school and resumption of high school sports.

Experts emphasize that young people are leading the increase in cases.

“The outbreak among high school students is dramatic across the state,” Sullivan said.

In the last three weeks, people under the age of 20 accounted for 22% of new cases, compared to 13% in the first year of the pandemic. The average daily case rate since March 5 has increased by 131% for children under the age of 10 and 147% for children between the ages of 10 and 19 compared to the previous year’s average.

“That’s what we expected,” said Ryan Marosh, an epidemiologist at the University of Michigan, when the school resumed face-to-face lessons. “Now the kids are in contact with each other, so they are more susceptible. The virus is still here. It hasn’t disappeared, so we can see an increase in that age group. I don’t think it’s surprising.

“It can also explain part of the (spreading) rate, because so many people are vulnerable to aging,” Marosh said, who has not been vaccinated and has not yet been exposed to the virus. Stated. In addition, children and teens tend to interact with more people than adults through school and social activities.

He added that the classroom itself may not always be a problem. “When I drive my daughter’s school, it looks good. They are all masked and only one class goes out to the playground at a time. But at the end of the second day of school, everyone goes to the park. , I have it because I’m playing without a mask. “

As with sports, children may be exposed not to the competition itself, but to the events surrounding the sporting activity. Another UM epidemiologist, Emily Toss Martin, said:

Ann Arbor Public School suspends spring sports after a surge in COVID-19 cases

Most young people have mild cases of coronavirus, but this is not always the case, health experts warn. Some children become very ill and require hospitalization. Currently, 18 COVID-19 patients are admitted to a pediatric ward in the state.

Improved mobility

From January to February, Michigan was one of the lowest states in the country in terms of mobility, based on mobile phone data. Because people are at home, they have less chance of being exposed to the virus or others.

That changed in March, and in some areas mobility returned to pre-pandemic levels, Martin said.

“Looking at the sources of mobile data and other mobility data we have, we can see that people are moving around at levels close to what they saw before the pandemic occurred on certain types of travel.” She said. “So there’s definitely more movement going on, and some of these outbreaks we’re hearing are pretty big,” includes a large social gathering.

Resuming indoor dining at the restaurant

Of the 50 states, Michigan was one of the lowest infection rates from January to most of February, experts say the main reason was more restrictions.

Governor Gretchen Whitmer eased restrictions on gyms and cinemas in January, allowing restaurants to resume face-to-face meals on February 1. Coronavirus cases and positive rates began to rise around the third week of February.

A recent study by the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention concludes that when restaurant restrictions are lifted, case rates usually increase. This is because the coronavirus is most easily spread in an indoor environment without a mask.

“We expect an increase in cases when we start returning people to restaurants,” Marosh said. “We know that just getting more contact with people will hit them a bit, but that’s not all. This is a pretty big rise,” he said. This indicates that other factors are involved.

Martin said eating with or around others tends to be the general denominator of the outbreak.

“To be honest, food is a very important part of our gathering, so many come down to food,” she said.

“Masks make a big difference,” she said. Looking at the outbreak data, “I’m still impressed with the difference between when people are masked and when people are unmasked.”

COVID-19 variant

It is clear that the emergence of new COVID-19 mutants, which are more contagious than the predominant strain of coronavirus, is one factor.

What is unclear is the current size of the factor variant.

Along with Florida, Michigan is one of the most identified cases of the B.1.1.7 strain that first appeared in the United Kingdom. The subspecies has been identified in more than 1,000 cases in 41 Michigan counties.

However, UM epidemiologists Malosh and Martin say that Michigan is far more aggressive than most states in testing variants, so the high number of cases here is simply due to it. It warns that it is difficult to judge.

“We know it’s here, and when I last checked in in mid-March, it seemed to be about 10% to 20% of cases,” Martin says. I did. “So it’s not a mainstream stock yet, but it’s on the rise.

“I think what we are seeing now is that in addition to the changes that are happening, there are many behavioral changes that are happening at the same time,” she said.

Lee, a data analyst at MHA, believes that the spread of mutant strains in Michigan explains both the increased hospitalizations and anxious surges in COVID-19 patients in their 30s and 40s. I will.

“The reason I believe (B.1.1.7.) Variants are affecting hospitalization rates is the fact that young people were coming to our hospital,” Lee said. “And we know that this variant causes more serious illnesses and is more contagious, especially in younger populations, and hospitalization rates are rising faster than I would expect.”

Sullivan, a doctor of infectious diseases in Grand Rapids, agreed.

“I think this is a kind of perfect storm for that variant, and it’s licking that chop advantage of the situation,” he said. “How fast the numbers are rising, I have to believe that many of these cases are probably B.1.1.7. Variant cases.”

COVID fatigue

Undoubtedly, a major factor is the coronavirus mitigation strategies, such as wearing masks, avoiding crowds, especially indoors, after a year of hope provided by COVID-related restrictions and coronavirus vaccines. Is ignoring.

“Many people are fed up with COVID,” Sullivan said. “They say,’I’m done.’ They’re sick of it. And now that they’ve been vaccinated, they feel like things are going well and they’re worried about COVID. No need anymore. “

Martin offers a similar perspective.

“There is this innate feeling among many people” The vaccine is here. They are becoming widely available. Let’s go ahead and start acting as if we were already vaccinated, “she said. “There is a strong desire for people to start gathering, whether or not they are vaccinated.”

Good news

The very good news is that vaccination has proved to be a huge success for those who have been vaccinated so far.

MHA officials say they have never heard reports of hospitalization for people who have been fully or partially vaccinated.

In fact, according to the Michigan Medical Association, COVID-19 cases of residents of skilled nursing facilities in Michigan have declined by 96% since the federal vaccination program for long-term care facilities began in late December.

This is especially important because caregivers account for one-third of COVID-19 deaths in Michigan.

COVID-19 cases in nursing homes in Michigan decreased by 96% and mortality decreased by 99% from late December

Data also show that cases of coronavirus in the elderly in the general population are also plummeting. Despite the surge in cases among other age groups, the average number of new cases per person per day decreased by 54% this month for those aged 80 and over, and the average rate for the first year in their 70s. It is reduced by 26% compared to. Pandemic.

And Lee said the increase in COVID hospitalizations for the elderly was a fraction of the previous surge.

Meanwhile, 70% of adults in Michigan and 100% of children have not yet been vaccinated, leaving many people vulnerable to this surge.

Lee and his colleagues said the increase in hospitalization was particularly worrisome. The big wave of infections among children now seems to have spread to the proliferation of COVID cases among parents and those around them.

As a result, children and teens are rarely hospitalized for the coronavirus, but Lee said the recent hospitalizations for people under the age of 60 are of great concern.

Hospitalization with COVID-19 in Michigan occurred among young adults who reached the same level as their previous peak.

Given the promising trends among older people, vaccination seems to provide the best path from the current surge, experts agree. But now there is competition between vaccines and mutants.

Martin said the variant needed to double down its coronavirus mitigation strategy until it was vaccinated.

“It’s like you’re running a race and other runners start running 50% faster,” she said. “I want to catch him while I still have a chance.”

Details of MLive:

6 reasons why the number of COVID-19 in Michigan is skyrocketing

How to Find a COVID-19 Vaccination Reservation in Michigan

Pharmacy Supports Coronavirus Vaccine Enhancement in Michigan