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Vaccines are changing the way COVID-19 numbers are interpreted

 


that is Was impossible To ensure that you know how many people are infected with COVID-19 at a particular time in the United States. Instead, combine all the indicators (the rate at which the tests performed returned positive, the number of new cases reported daily, and the people who came to the emergency room with COVID-19 symptoms) to get an estimate. It’s like a story of a blind man and an elephant. Experts can feel a variety of information to understand what an outbreak looks like, even if it cannot be seen directly.

Over the past year, I’ve seen the same elephant appear many times. First, the percentage of tests that return positive increases. After a short delay, hospitalizations begin to increase and then die. But this time there is a new wrinkle: vaccination. It changes patterns and makes it difficult to interpret COVID-19 trends over the coming weeks and months.

One of the most important data points for tracking the spread of the virus is the number of people hospitalized for a disease like COVID-19 at a particular time. This is a concrete indicator. If someone is ill and needs to be hospitalized, they are usually in the hospital. Other indicators such as case rate and positive test rate are awkward. They vary based on how many people decide to take the test.

“Hospitalization is a difficult result for us. Everything else depends heavily on testing,” says Melissa McFeaters, co-director of the Center for Improving Public Health through Informatics at Vanderbilt University. .. Therefore, even if the case rate fluctuates, we focused on the tendency of hospitalization in order to understand the direction of the pandemic.

Currently, the cases of COVID-19 are Will start to rise again In the United States.But this time 70 percent In the United States, a percentage of people over the age of 65 receive the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. It is the group most likely to be hospitalized or die if they become infected with the virus. Now they are vaccinated — and the risk of hospitalization and death is incredibly small.

It could take our normal data pattern out of the bang. Incidents can increase as many states have relaxed restrictions, even though most people have not yet been vaccinated. However, when an unvaccinated person becomes ill, he or she may become younger and less likely to be hospitalized.

The usual way to visualize an elephant will not work. Having is a good problem — having few people in the hospital is a great win. However, as the number of cases fluctuates and tests go up and down, hospitalization is no longer a reliable backstop to reveal what is happening in the pandemic. “I don’t know if we can get a sample of what’s happening in the community so well,” says McPheeters.

That may mean that the way we monitor the pandemic needs to be readjusted. Fewer people may be in the hospital, but you can, for example, take a closer look at the group. If many people from one area of ​​the city are in the hospital, or who work in a similar industry, it may indicate that the particular community is high in the virus. Where to direct resources. “Not just the number of people WHO We get to the hospital, “says McPheeters.

Over the past year, people have scrutinized the COVID-19 index to determine how to act, such as sending a child to school, meeting a few friends, or delivering groceries. I have provided guidelines. Ultimately, as more people are vaccinated, new patterns may begin to emerge that may guide the analysis. And when the pandemic begins to fade, we don’t have to scrutinize the number of COVID-19s so closely. But for now, everything is in flux and the numbers don’t necessarily mean the same as in January today.

Here’s what else happened this week.

the study

Unlock the Covid code
We will delve deeper into the world of gene sequencing and explore how this tool can change the world’s public health after a pandemic. (John Gartner / New York Times)

No one can find an animal that gave people COVID-19
The group is looking for animals that first infect humans with the virus that causes COVID-19 and cause a pandemic. It’s not an easy task, and international politics makes it much more difficult. (Anthony Legalado / MIT Tech Review).

development of

AstraZeneca Wild Ride
On Monday, AstraZeneca announced: The vaccine was 79 percent effective.. The next day, the government announced an incredibly rare public accusation of the company, Said those numbers were out of date..AstraZeneca announced a new number later this week Really 76% effective.. Huh. After all, it’s a pretty good vaccine with bad communication problems. The FDA Commission’s hearing on this will be interesting. (Nicole Wetman / The Verge).

Pfizer begins testing vaccines in toddlers
Children under the age of 12 are beginning to participate in clinical trials of the COVID-19 vaccine. Both Pfizer and Moderna have begun their own trials to test how well vaccines work in young patients and whether they are safe. (Apuorwa Mandabili / New York Times).


This is a great video from a Vox colleague explaining the difference in vaccine efficacy numbers.

Outlook

There were two summer weeks when she was only able to smell the phantom smoke. The smell was so strong that when I woke up one morning, I was surprised to be convinced that something in the house was burning. After a while she was able to smell her boyfriend Cologne again, but instead of the familiar scent she always loved, it was an unpleasant chemical odor. Hand soap is also working. It used to have a generally fruity scent, but now it has exactly the eerie scent of Burger King’s Wapper.

— Sarah Zhang writes about Ruby Martinez’s experience of recovering her scent sensation after COVID-19. Atlantic..

As of December 10th, my healthcare plan was billing $ 536,000. My plan paid most of it, but I’m still borrowing about $ 150,000. Implant invoices are not included. Medical expenses are late. It will take months for things to get done. It was hard to see at first, but now it’s a joke. I look at them and I don’t think I know how to pay for it. My insurance premium is $ 750 a month and my colleague has a tip to cover it.

— Lisa Fischer tells journalist Houdan Yang about the cost of COVID-19 Intelligence..

More than a number

Over 505 Million people Vaccinated — Thank you.

For more than 125,864,307 people worldwide who test positive, the path to recovery may be on track.

For 2,761,409 family and friends (547,756 in the United States) who have died worldwide, your loved one will never be forgotten.

Everyone, please ensure your safety.

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