Health
Survey: US may face $ 654B in direct coronavirus treatment costs
Estimates can be used as a reference point for policy makers and politicians who are working on the costs of restarting the economy.
According to COVID-19, the cost of providing health care to Americans infected with COVID-19 can reach $ 645 billion, depending on the number of people with the disease. New research on health issues.
Using a “Monte Carlo simulation model” of the US population, researchers at public health schools in New York and California found that the direct medical costs of a single symptomatic COVID-19 infection only occur on course $ 3,045 It is estimated that the median of infection will be.
“At the start of each simulation, we determine what percentage of the population will be infected (that is, attack rate) with an age distribution of cases that matches the reported age distribution of COVID-19 cases,” the researchers write. I am. “Each infected person then traverses a probability tree of the various contiguous clinical outcomes that can occur.”
Researchers say that when 80% of the U.S. population is infected, it results in 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million ICU hospitalizations, 6.5 million mechanical ventilators, and 249.5 billion hospitalization days during a pandemic. The total direct cost was estimated to be $ 654 billion. .
Using the same formula, if 50% of the U.S. population is infected, it will be hospitalized 27.9 million times, ventilated 4.1 million times, hospitalized 156.2 million days, and cost approximately $ 408.8 billion.
If 20% of the population is infected, the median hospitalization will be 11.2 million, the number of hospital stays will be 62.3 million, the ventilator will be 1.6 million, and cost $ 163.4 billion.
Researchers could use their estimates as a reference point for policymakers and politicians trying to tackle the costs of reopening the economy, thereby making the case of COVID-19 possible. It is very likely to increase.
“Some suggested a herd immunity strategy against this pandemic,” said lead author Sarah Barchu, said Public Health Informatics, Computing, and Project Director of Operations Research Team.
“These strategies consist of allowing people to become infected until the herd’s immune threshold is reached and the virus is unable to spread. But our study shows that such strategies come at a huge cost. It shows that there is a possibility, “she said.
This study was a collaborative effort between PHICOR, the Infectious Diseases Clinical Outcomes Research Unit at the Los Angeles Institute of Biomedical Research, Harbor UCLA Medical Center, and Torrance Memorial Medical Center.
John Commins is a content specialist and online news editor for Health Leaders, a Simplify compliance brand.
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