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By the end of June, we are on the path of herd immunity

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Leftovers from yesterday.Not just me Believe in them, Perhaps they are conservative about the timeline. Given the tremendous decline in cases in California these days, we wonder if they have not yet achieved some degree of herd immunity.

“If LA County receives 500,000 doses a week,” he said. [L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara] “80% of vaccinations over the age of 16 can occur in the next 12 weeks,” Feller said on Wednesday.

Feller says he is immune because 30-40% of the county’s inhabitants are already infected. Fauci cited a study this week claiming that 45% of people in Los Angeles have Covid-19 antibodies. Assuming that the majority of those people are not vaccinated, the number of immune LA residents under the age of 16 may be nailed to immunity exposed to the virus in about 10% of the total population.

Feller says that 80% of the remaining population over the age of 16 should be vaccinated by late June — this is 64% of the total population. Adding 10% of the population under the age of 16 who are immune to the virus, it seems reasonable to say that about 74% of all Los Angeles residents will be immune by late June. This is within the 70-85% requirement for Fauci’s herd immunity.

I don’t think deeply about it, but they haven’t received as much attention as they deserve, so I’d like to show you what state-wide numbers look like in California these days.Most of the focus is on the resurrection of COVID Michigan And New York, this is partly Media “bad news bias” Partly due to pressure from the expert class, I tried to stay vigilant rather than relax. And that tendency is * worrisome *. In the cooler northern states, cases such as Michigan, where British varieties are prevalent, are increasing.

But California? California is Kill it..

The recent seven-day average is below 2,600 per day, the lowest in the state since May last year. New York California’s population is halved, with more than three times as many cases yesterday. Michigan More than 7,000 cases were seen in a quarter of California. With 40 million people, less than 3,000 are unusually good.

When measured with, it will be as follows Positive rate.. California is currently sitting at 1.5 percent. There are no typos.

Michigan By comparison, the positive rate is 14.3 percent.

What’s going on with Cali? No one has a description of the silver bullet, just a stew of the obvious. First, the weather is warmer than in the northeast and appears to have “seasonal” effects from the virus. This also explains the decline in the number of cases in Texas. Second, vaccination is 31 percent Of the California population who received at least one dose. Third, as noted in the excerpt, most people may have already acquired immunity in the old-fashioned way during the fierce winter waves of California. Combining naturally immunized people with recently vaccinated people will run out of people who are suddenly infected with the virus. Herd immunity setting.

But … two of these explanations also apply to New York. Cuomo also provides initial doses to 31 percent of the population. And, of course, New York was hit by the most devastating wave of COVID in any state during a pandemic last spring. If someone has a lot of native immunity in the population, we expect it to be a New Yorker. Still, as I say, there are more cases now in New York. Why aren’t they carrying like Californians?

Two possibilities.Maybe the weather is Really A major contributor to COVID infection, or California, is largely immune to the nasty variants that New York and Michigan are dealing with.New York has its own Homemade stock In Michigan, the number of cases of British strains is unusually high. Cali could simply have been lucky because neither of these variants settled locally.

Except … California had Unique homemade stock Too. I haven’t heard much these days, but a month ago scientists were chatting. The variant is unusually contagious, if not unusually dangerous, and may have disproportionately infected a large number of locals in the past winter and is now instilling a higher degree of herd immunity. Do you have?

Tiana Lowe has another theory.

I’m waiting the end Did the number of blockades solve the California COVID problem by letting people out? The wrinkle of the theory is that the number of cases has decreased for two months, but the majority of the population is still limited.Only now there is an infection at the bottom of the rock The remaining precautions have begun to be lifted.. In fact, LA County, which makes up a quarter of the state’s population, hasn’t lifted the restrictions until next Monday. Californians may have been out more recently, not because of them, because the weather has improved, despite what the rules say.

Whatever the answer, even an expert Carefully optimistic State going Avoid a kind of last wave That New York is dealing with it. The number of cases is too small, vaccinations are carried out too quickly, and the weather is too warm for the virus to regain meaningful momentum. That’s at least a theory. I wish you success.

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