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Excess mortality will surge 23% in the United States in 2020, primarily due to COVID-19

Excess mortality will surge 23% in the United States in 2020, primarily due to COVID-19

 


Editor’s Note: Find the latest COVID-19 news and guidance from Medscape Coronavirus Resource Center..

In the United States, nearly 23% more deaths than expected during the first nine months of the pandemic, and nearly three-quarters of those deaths were associated with COVID-19.

By the way, in recent years, the mortality rate has increased by less than 2.5% every year.

At the same time, the mortality rate from heart disease is Alzheimer’s disease Or dementia and diabetes also increased from March 1, 2020 to January 2, 2021, especially during the COVID-19 surge.

“Richmond surges in the east in April, followed by summer and early winter surges in southern and western states, respectively. Many of these states weakly embraced or blocked pandemic measures and others. The restrictions were lifted sooner, “said Steven H. Woolf, MD, MPH, and colleagues at Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine in Reed Richmond. Research letter Published online on April 2, 2021 JAMA..

The COVID-19 mortality rate included all mortality listed as the root cause or cause in the records of the District of Columbia and 49 states. North Carolina was excluded due to insufficient data.

Over 500,000 deaths

Between March 1, 2020 and January 2, 2021, there were 2,801,439 deaths in the United States, or 522,368 excess deaths. A total of 72.4% of these events were due to COVID-19.

Not all racial and ethnic groups are represented equally. For example, the over-mortality rate was higher in the non-Hispanic black population, at 208.4 per 100,000. The non-Hispanic Caucasian population experienced 157 deaths per 100,000 and the Hispanic population experienced 139.8 deaths per 100,000.

In addition, non-Hispanic black individuals accounted for 16.9% of excess mortality, but only 12.5% ​​of the U.S. population, which reflects the “racial disparity in COVID-19 mortality,” the authors said. Stated.

Not adjusting for the aging of the population is a potential limitation, as is the reliance on provisional data and the possibility that some death certificates may be inaccurate.

In February, President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, Dr. Anthony Fauci, said: Political division It may have been involved in more than 500,000 COVID-19-related deaths in the United States.

Then, on March 26, a report was issued showing that another US response to the pandemic could have been circumvented. Almost 400,000 COVID-19 dead..In addition, the CDC April 1 study Weekly morbidity and mortality reports COVID-19 is now Third leading cause of death In the United States, after heart disease and cancer.

“Large” excess mortality

“There are no more visible or alarming signs of COVID-19 pandemic victims than the death it caused. JAMA, Woolf et al. Provide the latest analysis showing that the US mortality rate was very high from March 1, 2020 to January 2, 2021, “Alan Garber, MD, PhD said. I wrote it in the attachment. editorial..

“COVID-19 seems likely to have contributed to about the same number of deaths as the greats in the United States. Influenza pandemic 1918, and above all influenza Since then, it has happened in the United States. ” Gerber, president of Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, added.

He added that this study of excess mortality shows what is at stake. “Despite decades of scientific, medical and public health advances, the loss of life due to the COVID-19 pandemic outweighs the mortality rate of major wars. To prepare for the next war. Don’t waste this opportunity to do what you need to do.

Woolf and Gerber do not disclose the relevant financial relationship. The National Institute of Health supported research through the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences and the National Institute on Aging.

Damian McNamara is a Miami-based staff journalist. He covers a wide range of medical specialties, including infectious diseases, gastroenterology, and critical care. Follow Damian on Twitter: @MedReporter.

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