As I repeatedly complained in 2020, it should be emphasized that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention began to publish realistic estimates of the Covid-19 range in the United States, albeit late and halfway.
It’s hard to explain as a deliberate mistake, but at least a timely addendum is that the fourth wave will focus on less than 100 million people who are already infected and have some immunity. Reminds us as duplicate 100 million people who may have been vaccinated.
That is, the fourth wave is limited to unvaccinated young people, while working diligently, mixing and risking in ways not a few months ago.
In much the same way, the results of California, Florida, Germany, Sweden, etc. break the simple correlation between forced blockades and successful practices of social distance. Overwhelmingly one conclusion is reached. Certain locations, such as New York and Florida, where peak case loads occurred long after northern Italy, benefited from having time to think, consider, and follow a more subtle approach to Covid’s arrival. ..
You may find that the blockade is too late, does not comply, or is simply irrelevant after the choices people make about when and how they are at risk.
It also lags behind the evolution of the virus. The strain that exploded in northern Italy and prevailed in the early days of the United States was no longer inhabited at the time, but was already different from the strain that emerged in Wuhan.
Politics may not promote science, but it does promote what science politicians call attention to. Now it’s a new variant that has become a hook to reinforce the message of social distance that the general public is naturally tired of listening.
But evolution is not an enemy. For good reason, birds rarely get sick with bird flu. As our coronavirus experience becomes more influenza-like, one factor is the evolutionary benefit of the virus, which is less incapacitating its host.
A simple mapping will one day explain the political response. Western politicians understood that they only got permission from the public for strict measures if medical care was threatened by everyone.
China, which is indignantly indignant by some media, faced a much different calculation. A one-party dictatorship without a mechanism to transfer legitimacy can only supply one-tenth of the intensive care beds if the virus burns a larger urban population. , Dense and poorer than any western country.
When non-controversial thinkers evaluate a pandemic, they line up where Western society went because of the trade-offs of social risks and interests that qualitatively differ from the public’s expectations of individual autonomy. Understand why you pulled.
The good news is that herd immunity is starting to take hold. This does not mean that there is no Covid. That means less Covid. Overall, less Covid means less chance of the next trillion to 1 dangerous mutation. Google’s words “herd immunity” and “flu” and spills from the page provide evidence that herd immunity has never been taken to mean that the presence of the disease has ceased. Influenza still kills dozens to hundreds of children each year in the United States. If 80% of the cases are missing in the test, the current fourth wave corresponds to a moderately severe influenza season. Influenza is often the cause of death in the elderly and severely ill people (cancer, diabetes, lung condition) after they stop testing positive for the flu virus. Cowboy actor Warren Oates, who follows the cult among movie lovers, died at the age of 53 from a flu attack and a heart attack with a tough life. Paul Newman was 40 years old and was hospitalized for 5 days with the flu.
Even with the emergence of new variants, the epidemic will not be much more epidemic, even for pharmaceutical companies that are in constant competition to update vaccines against evolving viruses. Fun and productive activities are less risky and less likely to need to be avoided.
The wildcard is China, whose huge uninfected and (so far) unvaccinated population has been reopened to mostly vaccinated trading partners. Wildcards are the rest of the world where epidemics are still running the most (and tragic) natural course with unknown consequences for viral evolution. Wildcards are immunocompromised patients who spend months in hospitals to fight the virus and are now considered to be an important driver of mutations. It is a discussion to invest heavily in better treatment of these patients and to carefully manage their cases.
The journey from new pathogens to familiar pathogens is not a day on the beach, but Covid is one of the subliminal risks (like flu death) that humans best manage, primarily by removing them from the heart. It means to become one.
This story was published from a news agency feed without changing the text.
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