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When do you hit and what do you look like? These are just some of the unanswered questions about the potential second wave of COVID-19.

USA TODAY

Wilmington, Delaware-Newcastle County Government Soaks in Local Sewer to Estimate New COVID-19 Epidemic

Last week, county officials sent a sample of raw sewage from the Wilmington Wastewater treatment plant on 12th Street to a Massachusetts Institute of Technology startup. So they compared the prevalence of gene fragments from the virus in feces with local population data and sewage flow – all trying to estimate how many people might be infected with the virus. doing.

As of April 14, the company’s analysis estimates that 15,200 people, 3 percent of the population north of the Chesapeake and Delaware canals, are infected. This number is approximately 15 times the number of cases confirmed in the county on the date of the sample.

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As of Thursday, Newcastle County has 1,389 confirmed patients. There were 3,300 people across the state, and 92 people were killed by the virus.

However, the gap between laboratory-confirmed tests and estimates of wastewater is not entirely unexpected.

The number of people who test positive may be much less than those who may actually have been infected with the virus.

Laboratory tests are limited. So, who may have been a carrier, has mild symptoms and no one has ever been tested. Looking at the presence of the virus in rural sewers may give an estimate.

“This is a new technology,” said Newcastle County Executive Matt Meyer, who partnered with a testing company. “Estimated, but helpful.”

Meyer said he intended to conduct further testing to compare with the April 14 sample.

Such information could help spot hotspots around the county, allowing officials to direct more testing of asymptomatic people, said Mayer.

That information could also be a tool for officials seeking to measure the number of new cases and hospitalizations that Delaware continues to face, as well as when to relax restrictions on public life somewhere. .

The high prevalence of the virus, which may seem surprising at first glance, may also be an indicator of how close the county is to reaching “population immunity,” Meyer said. .

It is usually reached through vaccines that do not currently exist. And now scientists do not know if exposed people become fully immune and how long they remain immune. Some reports indicate that some people may be reinfected.

Meyer said it could be another tool for making decisions in an uncertain future, but that alone does not lead to a “big decision.”

The study was conducted by Biobot Analytics, a startup at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Since March 23, startups have collected samples from more than 100 processing facilities in approximately 24 states.

Results for this county are similar to those for Los Angeles County, California, where it was estimated that 4% of the population was exposed.

The results were also followed by a series of preliminary tests in the county to determine if anyone had the virus by measuring antibodies in the blood, Newcastle County Public Works Stormwater and Environmental Program. Manager Mike Harris said.

Follow Xerxes Wilson on Twitter: @Ber_Xerxes.

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