Health
Covid-19 may decline this summer, but don’t rely on hot weather to end the pandemic
Virus that causes SARS-CoV-2 COVID-19Will it disappear naturally this summer?
After all, other viruses including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), It causes bronchiolitis in small children – Mainly seen in winter.
Standing Committee of the National Academy Emerging Infectious Diseases and Threats to Health in the 21st Century I recently addressed a question Whether SARS-CoV-2 follows the same pattern. The expert group has compiled a survey to date to evaluate the evidence. Many have not been peer reviewed.
There are several reasons to expect the situation to improve as the weather warms, but there are many reasons the United States should remain vigilant.
Are heat and humidity the reason for your preference?
Although the US is in the early stages of a pandemic, there is evidence from other countries that SARS-CoV-2 spreads more rapidly in cold, dry climates.
One preprint survey of 30 provinces in China The number of COVID-19 For each 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, cases decreased by 36-57 percent. The number of cases decreases between 11% and 22% and the relative humidity increases by 1% (the amount of water in the air) if the temperature is kept constant below 40 degrees F.
Large-scale preprint survey of 310 regions in 116 countries Found that 11% more cases were reported when temperatures dropped 9 degrees, relative humidity dropped 10 percent, and wind speeds increased.
Laboratory studies also suggest that the virus survives longer in cold conditions. In one study, SARS-CoV-2 persisted in a laboratory 40 F medium for 14 days, but Disappears after 9 days at 98.6 F.
These and other studies suggest that warm and moist weather can slow the spread of this virus, But not all Commentator agrees.
New research on this topic occurs almost every day, and scientists are watching what happens when summer comes to the Northern Hemisphere.
Which clues need your attention?
COVID-19 It has already spread in many parts of the hot world, including Australia and South America, indicating that high temperatures are not enough to stop the disease.
The most important reason to worry about the ongoing spread of infection is the fact that it is a virus that is new to humans and that it is susceptible to almost everyone.
Actually the weather really Play a small role At the rate at which this virus spreads.
Other effects on infection rates Includes personal behavior, cultural practices, geography, income and living conditions. Public health practices Social distance, strength of infection testing, contact tracking, isolation of exposed people, and isolation of people who are actually infected also play a major role in the spread of coronaviruses.
News from other viral diseases Not encouraging. Covid-19, the first SARS outbreak, and the two most serious coronavirus diseases closely related to MERS, Unchanged after the season they appeared. In fact, MERS is still Found all year round in the Middle East, It’s hot and dry. Pandemic influenza infections also occur at different times of the year.
What should we do
of SARS-CoV-2 long-term solution Will develop Safe and effective vaccine. This work is progressing at an unprecedented speed, but it still takes months to years and requires testing with thousands of people and extensive international leadership and cooperation.
Until a vaccine is available, it is a precautionary measure to prevent contact with people who may spread the virus. Communities need to find out who is contagious and test people engaged in serious contact tracking, quarantine, and quarantine. Scientists need to learn more about how to determine if someone has immunity and how long the immunity lasts, Big open question at the moment. As individuals, each of us must follow expert scientific advice on good hygiene practices and distances.
SARS-CoV-2 is likely to continue to be distributed Until a human population has widespread immunity, it will hopefully come from developing and deploying safe and effective vaccines, not from unchecked pandemics.
This article was first published conversation Along Ellen Light Clayton At Vanderbilt University. Read Click here for the original article.
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