Group immunity, California coronavirus mutants preventing the West Coast spring surge? | National

But so far, California has been in relatively good shape. California has one of the lowest average daily cases of coronavirus in the country over the last seven days, but Michigan has 12 times the average daily case rate of California, which puts a heavy burden on hospitals. It has become.

One factor that may be helping California is the presence of California variants for reasons that are not fully understood. The California variant here is more contagious than traditional strains of coronavirus and may help keep the lid on the British variant, which is believed to be more likely to die.

Here are some reasons why Michigan might be doing so badly, but California-so far-seems to be doing much better.

The current waves in Michigan are approaching as strong as the height of the winter surge, Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco, said in a recent campus forum. Rutherford said the recent wave in Michigan was stimulated by youth athletic events, including a large outbreak involving a hockey team. Minnesota is also looking at a cluster of new cases.

A major contributor to the Midwest surge is the presence of British variants, which currently account for about 70% of new coronavirus cases in Michigan and Minnesota, Rutherford said. Michigan is currently looking at hospitals under pressure from a surge in patients, and some hospitals in the state have canceled non-urgent procedures and are enacting pandemic surge plans, the Detroit Free Press reports. It was.

But one of the bright side is that clusters in New York, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Connecticut seem to be “starting a bit around the corner.”

The unresolved question is whether the surge in COVID-19 in neighboring Ontario, Canada, is affecting the surge in cases in the Midwest and Northeast, Rutherford said. “The border is closed, [so] I’m not sure what that means. But that’s something to be aware of. “

Ontario doctors have begun appealing to government officials to send more intensive care unit nurses to the Toronto area “to avoid triage situations,” the Toronto Star reported Saturday.

In California, British variants probably account for 40% of new coronavirus cases, Rutherford said, but unlike Michigan, they “do not promote an overall epidemic curve,” Rutherford said. ..

Part of the reason is that California variants may outperform British variants to dominate the state. Of the cumulatively genomically sequenced virus samples, more than 12,000 California variants (also known as West Coast variants (B.1.427 / B.1.429)) were compared to the UK variant 980. It has been confirmed in California (B.1.1.7).

California variants are thought to be 20% more contagious than traditional coronavirus strains, while UK variants are 50% more contagious and are likely to exacerbate the disease. I have.

Some experts say that the British variant speculates that it will flock to the California variant. However, Rutherford said, somewhat counterintuitively, California variants could somehow repel British variants.

“For some reason, they seem to be pushing it out of the way,” Rutherford said, saying he couldn’t fully explain it. Future studies of coronavirus cases identified in the mission district of San Francisco are expected to report few cases of British variants.

California could eventually be dominated by British variants, Rutherford said. “But for now, we have more [California variant]”Razaford said.

If you need to choose between the California and British variants, the California variant is preferable because it is less contagious and deadly than the British variant.

“If it was a British variant [that was dominating California], We will be in a worse condition. “

The fall and winter surges in California have destroyed many low-income and Latino communities, leaving high death toll. These communities were particularly hit because many inhabitants live in crowded homes, do jobs that require them to leave the home, and are at high risk of infection.

However, the intensity of the autumn and winter waves has resulted in many survivors who are currently immune to COVID-19.

Authorities estimate that approximately 38% of LA County residents have been infected with the coronavirus since the outbreak of the pandemic. Rutherford said he suspected that half of the population was infected in parts of Los Angeles, such as Boyle Heights and South LA.

Rutherford said California could approach herd immunity by June 15.

So far, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer has refused to impose new mandatory restrictions to deal with the recent surge. On Friday, Whitmer demanded a voluntary two-week suspension of meals in an indoor restaurant, youth sports, and face-to-face high school classes, despite some doctors saying they needed it. Decided to oppose the order.

“No one wants another blockade, but it needs it,” said Dr. Mona Hanna Attisha, a pediatrician and author of “The Blind: A Story of Crisis, Resistance, and Hope in American Cities.” I tweeted. Hannah Attisha was awarded the Freedom of Expression Courage Award for exposing dangerous levels of lead in the waters of Flint, Michigan.

Following the surge in autumn and winter, dining at an indoor restaurant in Michigan resumed on February 1. LA County later resumed dining in its indoor restaurant and was able to reopen on March 15.

Domestic experts, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top US government infectious disease expert, have long warned that the state will resume operations too soon following the winter surge.

At the end of February, Fauci warned that the state was moving too fast. At CNN, Fauci said in the past of the pandemic, “When we started to withdraw prematurely, we saw a rebound. We absolutely want it to happen.” I did.

Last week, Dr. Rochelle Warrensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, advocated a “stronger mitigation strategy” to reduce the spread of disease in Michigan.

Problems that could delay the end of the pandemic in California include the introduction of new variants in California and the discovery of vaccine problems that could undermine the confidence of injections, Rutherford said. ..

Vaccines currently approved in the United States have proven to be very effective and safe, experts say. Also, variants with a relatively high risk of vaccine resistance (South African and Brazilian variants) have not yet established a strong position in the United States.

“The number of states beyond those few cases is so small that it really disappears,” Rutherford said. “I’m worried because I haven’t seen it yet.”

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