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Experts discuss whether it is possible to reach Covid immunity

 


People are holding hands on Fifth Avenue during a coronavirus outbreak in New York City on April 10, 2021.

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As the Covid vaccine is rolled out worldwide, many look forward to reaching “herd immunity.” It is when the disease quickly ceases to spread because most people are immune after vaccination or infection.

It is seen as a way to normal, doctors and Political leaders often argue When talking about defeating Covid-19.

on the other hand I was wondering if herd immunity was possible, Medical professionals who spoke to CNBC say it can be achieved. However, they point out the difficult path ahead, as maintaining high levels of immunity is a challenge.

Benjamin Cowling, Head of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, said: He added that vaccination, infectious diseases, or a combination of both could reach a variety of communities.

Not everyone agrees.

Ann Last month’s article in the scientific journal Nature We have outlined five reasons why herd immunity may not be reached. Barriers to herd immunity include new mutants, weakened immunity, and questions about whether the vaccine actually prevents infection, according to the report.

Mathematical biologist Shweta Bansal told the publication: “Herd immunity is only relevant if you are vaccinated against infection. If not, the only way to get herd immunity is to vaccinate everyone.”

Herd immunity: “complex” but possible

Health experts who spoke with CNBC acknowledged that the factors raised in Nature’s article could impede the development of herd immunity, but they believe it is still within reach. Said that.

“We are not trying to eradicate it, we are trying to stop uncontrolled community infections. In that sense, we can achieve (herd immunity),” said the National University Infection. Dale Fisher, a professor of infectious diseases, said the Yonlurin School of Medicine in Singapore.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, President’s Chief Medical Advisor to President Joe Biden, said: To make an immune “umbrella”, 75% to 85% of people need to be inoculated Prevents the spread of the virus. Fisher estimates that this figure is about 70%.

“… It’s possible to reach 70%, but there are many threats to it,” he said, explaining that weakened immunity would reduce the proportion of the population immune to Covid-19. It reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine.

“Herd immunity is a very nice and conceptual thing to aim for, but it’s more complicated,” he said on the phone. “If you want to call about 70% of the magic numbers, all I’m saying is that it’s very difficult to achieve and maintain.”

Herd immunity may not be permanent, it may be something relatively short-term.

Benjamin Cowling

Faculty of Public Health, University of Hong Kong

Cowling agreed that there is “no guarantee” that immune levels will remain high in the long run. “Herd immunity may not be permanent, it may be something relatively short-term,” he said.

Still, he added that it is something the world can tackle, stressing that booster shots can be useful in the event of loss of protection.

Return to “normal”

Carlos del Rio, a professor of medicine at Emory University School of Medicine, said it could take three to five years for the world to return to “fully normal.”

“There are still a lot of transmissions around the world, and I think it will take some time before that changes,” he told CNBC. “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.

The· The World Health Organization warned this week that the pandemic is “exponentially expanding.” Last week, more than 4.4 million new Covid-19 cases were reported.

Maria Van Kerkhove, technical lead of the Covid-19 agency, said the world has reached a “pandemic critical point.”

“Vaccines and vaccinations are coming online, but they are not yet here in all parts of the world,” she added.

Fisher said the world is still “extremely vulnerable to large-scale outbreaks,” but cases can be sporadic in five or ten years. In the meantime, there is a transition period.

“Herd immunity is not a dual phenomenon,” he said. “Most people think you either have it or you don’t, but there’s a clear gray in between.”

Cowling believes Covid’s greatest risk will be in the next 12 months, but said the threat would diminish as the vaccine was rolled out.

“In the next few years, I expect the virus to still circulate and endemic, but it will no longer pose a major public health threat,” he said.

— CNBC’s Berkeley Lovelace contributed to this report.

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