Governor Newsom calls COVID herd immunity an “illusion.” Is he right? – Chico Enterprise-Record

For more than a year after COVID-19 ruined our lives, the concept of group immunity emerged in our future as a goal to be achieved: a sufficient number of us from COVID-19. Once immunized by recovery or vaccination, we can cause a pandemic in the rear-view mirror, reviving as we knew.

Experiences such as the Spanish flu and measles have given us reason to believe that the virus will disappear if no one is found that is not sufficiently protected to be infected.

But even if vaccination efforts have skyrocketed and access has expanded to everyone over the age of 16 this month, experts and authorities have said. Recession From the idea that herd immunity is right there, or even achievable. Among them is California Governor Gavin Newsom.

“I think it’s a bit fantastic and this concept of herd immunity,” Newsom said on Tuesday when asked if his administration had any predictions about when California would reach that goal. ..

“You have people who simply don’t intend to get vaccinated,” Newsom explained. “If you reach herd immunity, all children must also be included, but there is no broad permission for people under the age of 16 and you need to be careful. Combined with the variant … resistance. All of them are “very very difficult to answer” the question.

Health experts said that in most cases the governor was not off the mark.

“This is a very subtle issue,” said Dr. John Swartsburg, Professor Emeritus of Infectious Diseases and Vaccinations at the University of California, Berkeley and UCSF Joint Medical Program. “I don’t think the governor is off the wall, but I think it deserves a better explanation.”

Herd immunity comes down to a mathematical problem — a sufficient number of people have enough immunity to sniff out the spread of the disease. However, many variables can make solving equations crazy. The more contagious the disease, the more people must be immune to slow the spread of the disease.

Andrew Neumer, an epidemiologist and demographic health scientist at the University of California, Irvine, said herd immunity is not the same as eradicating the disease, as it happened with smallpox through a global vaccination campaign. Herd immunity causes infections and minor outbreaks, as in the case of measles. They won’t spread far.

Newsam suggests that COVID-19 may require immunity in 70%, 85%, and even 90% of the population, indicating that they do not trust certain numbers very much.

“It’s not a magical number-the governor is right in that regard-it’s a more conceptual idea,” Swartsburg said. “We want to reach a point where it is very unlikely that we are around an infected person. At that point, the virus will be very difficult to find someone who can grow. I When we reach a very high degree of herd immunity, it is unlikely that the virus will be able to sustain itself in any way to have a strong impact on our lives. “

University of Washington School of Medicine Expert Institute for Health MetricsRunning a widely respected computer model to predict the outbreak of COVID-19, do not expect herd immunity in the United States until next year.

Ali H, a professor at the Institute’s Health Metrics Sciences. Mokdad estimates that 85% of the population needs immunity to the virus because the virus is so contagious to achieve herd immunity. However, children under the age of 16 are not currently vaccinated and many Americans do not want to be vaccinated, so only about 65% are more likely to get immunized by winter, he said. It was. More contagious variants of the virus, which may circumvent some of the vaccine’s protection, add to concern.

“We reach herd immunity, but not before this winter,” Mokudad said. He expects the virus to subside from summer to autumn, but will come back in winter to begin cold and dry weather, favoring its spread. He said it was unlikely to surge as much as last winter, but he said health officials would need to re-impose travel and hide rally requirements and restrictions.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the country’s top infectious disease expert, said in a Senate hearing last month that unvaccinated children interfere with herd immunity, what is the particular virus? “

The unknown makes it difficult to predict herd immunity — how long immunity from vaccines or past infections protects us, stops new viral mutations in the United States and around the world, and finally theirs here. Do you find a way?

“Herd immunity is a moving target just because there aren’t enough vaccines in the world to vaccinate,” Mokudad said.

Not all experts are buying pessimism about herd immunity. Dr. Monica Gandhi, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco, cites several reasons why it makes sense to expect herd immunity in the near future.

The vaccine currently approved in the United States by Pfizer and Modana is “more effective than we ever expected, preventing 100% of serious illnesses and 95% of symptomatic infections in deployment studies. And you are more likely to achieve herd immunity, Gandhi said.

She does not need to vaccinate children to reduce infections, according to a study by Israel, which has been a world leader in vaccination of the population, and only vaccinating children over the age of 16 will infect children. Has been shown to decrease significantly.

Israel and the United Kingdom are world leaders in vaccination of the population, with very low vaccination levels of 60% and 48%, respectively, despite the lifting of blockade restrictions and the gathering of more people. It shows the infection rate. .. She added that the vaccine shows excellent protection against known variants, showing that Californians are more likely to accept the vaccine than other states.

Still, other experts advise not to bet on when herd immunity will come.