According to an influential forecasting team, the United States has made little progress this week in preventing COVID-19 deaths.

As health professionals are worried about COVID-19 The resurrection, influential forecasting team said the country has made no significant progress against the virus this week. And it warned that Americans would take less safety precautions.

The forecast provided by the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington on Friday is about the same as last week. In the most likely scenario, an additional 58,000 people will die from the virus by August 1.

The United States was in competition to vaccinate Americans before more infectious variants could once again send numbers to overwhelming levels.

According to data released Saturday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), more than 205 million COVID-19 vaccines have been given in the United States. More than 129 million people have been vaccinated at least once and more than 82 million have been fully vaccinated.

Also, while more than 30% of adults in the United States are already fully vaccinated, experts have been able to reach the level of immunity needed for the public to stay ahead of the pandemic through vaccine hesitation and mitigation of precautions. It warns that it may disappear.

Experts emphasize that the rare cases of side effects from the COVID-19 vaccine far outweigh the collective protection of widespread vaccination.

“The vaccine has already saved thousands of lives,” Dr. Carlos del Rio, director of medicine at Emory University, told CNN. “In the United States, we have found that mortality is declining despite the increase in cases, because people are vaccinated.”

However, as these doses are becoming weapons, distance and masking still play an important role in the fight against the coronavirus.

“If universal mask coverage (95%) is achieved next week, our model predicts a cumulative reduction of 13,000 deaths,” said IHME researchers.

However, the model instead foresaw that people would stop using masks. “The trend towards easing mandates continues, and it seems likely that behavior will recover significantly,” he said.

According to the model, in the worst-case scenario, if you stop wearing masks, move around, or get together, 679,000 people will die by August 1.

As of Saturday morning, the United States is the world leader in more than 566,000 coronavirus deaths, with more than 3 million reported COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Data edited by Johns Hopkins University.

Where are the numbers now

In some parts of the United States, cases of COVID-19 are increasing again.

According to Johns Hopkins data on Friday, the average daily positive cases of COVID-19 increased by at least 10% in at least 13 states. This is an improvement from 21 states on Thursday, but emphasizes that the fight against the pandemic is not over yet.

In Michigan, hospitals are becoming more and more overwhelmed and full, partly due to the influx of new cases.

Dr. Joel Fishbane, director of infection prevention and medical care at Beaumont Hospital in Grosse Pointe, Michigan, said many patients in the hospital are now younger than those admitted last spring.

“I’m worried about the nursing staff,” he told CNN. “Therefore, even with open beds, there may not be staff to staff … all nurses and support staff are really tired.”

State and local authorities are trying to avoid a similar situation, pushing for higher levels of immunization in adults, which shows signs of continued improvement.

“We’ve already knocked down the virus three times, but we need to knock it down a fourth time,” Washington Governor Jay Inslee said Thursday.

Many states are urging higher immunization rates.

“We know that these vaccines are primarily involved in the 90% reduction in deaths seen in the first 13 weeks of 2021,” said Emperor COVID-19 of West Virginia. Dr. Kramersh said Thursday.

Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Connecticut, and Georgia all emphasize increasing vaccination coverage.

According to Governor Andrew Cuomo’s office, New York has had the lowest hospitalizations since December 1, and more than half of New York’s adults have been vaccinated at least once.

Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Survey

As the distribution of the vaccine continues, Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine remains suspended while the company waits for researcher guidance.

Severe blood clots in the brain, known as cerebral sinus thrombosis (CVST), may be associated with the vaccine, but the incidence is rare. To date, only 6 of the approximately 7 million doses received so far have been reported in the United States. An FDA official said Tuesday that one had died and the other was in serious condition.

According to the state’s Ministry of Health, one of the six cases involved a 26-year-old Pennsylvania woman who recovered after being treated in a hospital. The state, which has suspended J & J distribution until April 24, said federal oversight of vaccine safety was functioning as intended.

“The safety procedures built into the vaccination process are working and we need to instill confidence in the safety and efficacy of the available COVID-19 vaccine,” said Allison Beam, Deputy Secretary of Health and Welfare, Pennsylvania. I will. “Pfizer or Moderna vaccinated individuals are advised to keep their appointments.”

After the CDC and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recommended a suspension on Tuesday, the CDC Immunization Advisory Committee met on Wednesday, saying it did not vote to take further action and needed more information. The CDC Vaccine Advisors have scheduled a meeting. April 23 to determine if additional intervention is needed.

“Hopefully, a decision will soon be made as to whether this highly effective vaccine can get back on track,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said at a parliamentary hearing Thursday.

According to the CDC and FDA, vaccinated people who develop severe headache, abdominal pain, lower limb pain, or shortness of breath within 3 weeks of vaccination should contact their healthcare provider.

For those who received the J & J vaccine more than a month ago, the risk is “very low,” said Dr. Anne Schuchat, chief deputy director of the CDC, at a virtual briefing on Tuesday.

Researchers investigate vaccination of children up to 2 years old

In many states, everyone over the age of 16 is vaccinated, but researchers have begun testing the Pfizer / BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in children up to the age of two.

“Stanford Medicine is one of five sites nationwide participating in a Phase 1 trial of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in children under the age of five,” Stanford Medicine told CNN in a statement Thursday. It was. A Stanford Medical spokesperson confirmed that researchers began administering doses to participants in groups aged 2 to 5 years on Wednesday.

“In this study phase, which enrolls a total of 144 participants nationwide, we will test safety and tolerability with three doses of vaccines of this age group,” the statement said. “Once a safe and acceptable vaccine dose is established, a larger study of vaccine efficacy will begin in this age group.”

Phase 1 studies at Stanford are now fully enrolled.

Researchers at Cincinnati Children’s Hospital have also begun testing vaccines in young children. Dr. Robert Frenck, principal investigator of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine trial at the Cincinnati Children’s Hospital, said Monday that the first dose was given to participants in the range of 2-4 years last week.

Cincinnati Children’s Hospital said nearly 340 children are participating in vaccine trials in hospitals and more will be enrolled soon.