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Supply and Demand: Which state has reached a turning point for the COVID-19 vaccine?




we Recently estimated The United States is approaching the “turning point of the COVID-19 vaccine,” that is, the supply of vaccines may begin to outpace demand. He also noted that national averages may mask important state-specific differences. Therefore, we sought to understand where the states fall into this spectrum. These differences are important for understanding how best to target efforts to increase national vaccination rates.

To do this, we looked at the percentage of adults who received at least one vaccination in each state, the initial daily dose rate (using a 7-day moving average), and how this rate changed last week. (See method). ..In particular, we are interested in identifying states with relatively low vaccination rates (ie, less than 50% of adults over the age of 18), and these states present the greatest challenges to achieve. There is evidence of a decrease in initial dose intake due to the possibility of adequate vaccination rates in the United States

As of April 29, among the 50 states and DCs, we find that:

The proportion of adults who received at least one vaccination was 55% overall, ranging significantly from a minimum of 41% (Alabama) to a maximum of 74% (New Hampshire) nationwide. In addition, there is evidence that the pace of new uptake is slowing in most states. At the national level, the daily rate of initial doses is 451 per 100,000, ranging from 136 per 100,000 (Mississippi) to 889 (Rhode Island). Most states (31 out of 51) are vaccinated below national rates, reflecting the fact that vaccination rates are generally higher in higher states (eg California and Pennsylvania). In addition, initial doses per 100,000 people last week declined across the United States (-27%) and in almost every state (45 out of 51) (see Table 1).

At the upper limit of vaccine coverage, more than 60% of the adult population receive at least one vaccination in 12 states. These states are mainly in the northeast (8 of 12). Seven have a vaccination rate of at least 65%, and all but two (New Hampshire and New Mexico) are receiving initial doses that far exceed US rates. Eight of the twelve states have seen lower initial dose rates over the past week, and despite relatively high vaccination rates and rates, are these states approaching demand saturation? It may have reached saturation.

At the lower limit of vaccine coverage, less than 50% of the adult population receive at least one vaccination in 13 states, including 6 states with less than 45%... Nine of these states are in the south, and overall, the daily rate of initial vaccinations per 100,000 people is lower than that of the country. In addition, most people are experiencing a decrease in initial dose rates. This suggests that not only are these states approaching or reaching a turning point, but they may also be reaching relatively low levels of vaccination.

The remaining states, somewhere between these two extremes, are primarily in the Midwest and, to a lesser extent, in the South and West... In about half of these states, 55% to 60% of adults receive at least one dose. All but one experienced a decrease in the initial dose that was given last week.

States showing low overall vaccination rates and slow and declining vaccine intake raise the greatest concern.. There are 13 states covered in a range of less than 50% with at least one dose, all of which immunize the adult population below the national rate. Twelve of these states have also seen a decline in the proportion of adults vaccinated in the past week. These include three states (Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi) with vaccination rates of 42% or less, each immunizing at about half the rate of the entire United States. These are states that are potentially the greatest distance from reaching a sufficient level of vaccination rates and may be at risk for future outbreaks if levels do not increase significantly.


Like the entire United States, most states appear to be at or near a turning point in COVID-19 vaccine, where supply exceeds demand. This may not be a major issue for states that have already given at least one dose to the majority of the adult population (> 60%), but about one in four states is still at 50%. It has not been reached and is well below the coverage level. It may be needed to reduce the risk of future outbreaks. Moreover, in these states, the pace of vaccination is below national rates. The fact that initial dose rates have also declined in most of these states suggests that they are important targets for intensive efforts to generate increased demand for vaccines.

Vaccination data was obtained from Johns Hopkins University Citizens Impact Center, Collect state-level vaccination data from both the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the state COVID-19 dashboard. Adult population data (18+) 2019 State Population by Characteristic From the US Census Bureau. Received a 7-day moving average of the initial dose administered and at least one dose to each state and the entire United States (excluding areas and doses administered through federal facilities for US-wide calculations). We calculated both percentages of the adult population. Using these moving averages, we calculated the percentage of states and the United States calculating the initial dose per 100,000 adults. Weekly changes in the initial dose rate given were calculated using the rate of change from the current rate (April 29, 2021) to the rate from 7 days ago.Finally, we used to classify the states by region 2010 US Census Bureau Regions and Divisions Classification.

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