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View: Have you heard about the herd? It’s a COVID-19 error

Others argue for the use of herd immunity alone to stop the COVID-19 epidemic. Some even use this logic to justify the early opening of the economy. But what they don’t realize is that not all virus epidemics burn out. Polio has plagued humanity forever or until a vaccine was developed.

The COVID-19 epidemic alarmed the unprepared United States and the medical community. In early January 2020, public and healthcare leaders understood that there was no person-to-person spread.

However Washington PostPeter Navarro wrote notes on January 30, saying, “The virus was far more contagious than influenza and was more like gland plague or smallpox, according to a Chinese report.” Described by R0 (pronounced R naught). This is the number of people you expect to be infected. R0 for seasonal flu is about 1.3¹Or 3 people who get the flu get a total of 4 people. R0 of the gland plague is about 3.²Smallpox between 5 and 7^Three.

Vice President Mike Pence, at a presidential briefing on March 20, 2020, said the COVID-19 virus was three times as infectious as the flu that made R0 about 4.

On April 7, 2020, the pre-published manuscript of Los Alamos National Laboratory calculated a median R0 of 5.7 for the COVID-19 virus.^Four

Mitigation strategies may reduce R0 of infections. To reduce the total number of individuals with active infections, R0 should be less than 1. Therefore, on average, each infected person spreads the virus to less than one person. When this happens, the fashion will burn out.

Herd immunization strategies rely on a significant portion of the population to become immune to stop the spread of the virus. The higher the R0, the lower the total number of people with active infections and the greater the proportion of the population that must have immunity before the epidemic burns out. A R0 of 5 to 7 requires 80% to 85% of the population to be immune before the number of infections begins to decline. Therefore, without mitigation, one can argue that R0 would be very high and herd immunity cannot stop this epidemic. Almost all populations need to get the infection before the epidemic stops, which probably won’t happen. The availability of vaccines to prevent infection by pathogens with a high R0 is paramount.

Another concern is that immunity to the common cold-causing coronavirus lasts only 1-2 years.^FiveThere is plenty of evidence that cats and dogs can become infected and worry about their animal hosts.

Therefore, without a vaccine, this virus will stay with us for some time. Herd immunity may delay the spread of the epidemic, but it is unlikely to make a meaningful stop without a mitigation strategy. And there are serious concerns that those who are currently recovering may be re-infected in the near future.

A social distance strategy that protects people at risk from wearing masks and outbreaks is needed to manage this outbreak. False story.

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