Health
Sage experts say the third wave of coronavirus infection has begun
A health expert advising the government said he was “extremely worried” about the spread of Indian varieties of concern and warned that it might be the beginning of a third wave.
Andrew Hayward, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University College London (UCL) and a member of the Emergency Science Advisory Group (Sage), added that “more generalized” measures may be needed.
In the UK, about 3,000 Indian variants have been identified from 2,323 declared on Monday, and surge tests have been announced in many areas to limit their spread.
The number of cases of Indian coronavirus mutants of concern It doubled last week in Wales.
There are three first-discovered variants of India in circulation in Wales. The two are categorized as variants of interest, while the third, where experts have expressed concern about blockade mitigation, is categorized as a variant of concern.
Last week there were 11 concern mutations called VOC-21APR-02, which jumped to 25 by Tuesday, May 18.
The latest Public Health Wales data as of Tuesday, May 18 shows that:
- Currently, there are 25 cases of VOC-21APR-02 variants (up from the previous 11 cases).
- There are 15 VUI-21APR-01 (the same figure as last time).
- There is also one case of VUI-21APR-03 that was not previously detected in Wales.
This brings the total number of cases in Wales to a maximum of 41, compared to 27 last week.
The good news is that there is growing confidence within the government that vaccines available in the UK are effective against Indian strains and that the B1617.2 mutation proves to be less contagious than originally feared.
However, on Thursday, Professor Hayward told BBC Breakfast that he was “extremely concerned” about the dissemination of the first identified B1.617.2 variant in India, which could require “more generalized” measures. There is sex.
Asked if Britain is at the beginning of a third wave of infectious diseases, he says: “I think so.”
He states that this tension spreads very effectively within the home and to the wider community and is likely to spread to other parts of the country.
“Obviously, we’re doing everything we can to control that spread, but more general measures may be needed to control it,” says Professor Hayward.
He states that in the next week or two, it will be clear how widespread outbreaks in the region are to the entire population.
A third wave is always likely, but its size depends on how contagious the mutant is and how many people are vaccinated, says Professor Hayward.
In March, the Welsh Chief Medical Officer warned about the third wave in May.
Modeling by scientists has shown that increased mixing and more infectious variants of the virus can lead to another surge in cases from May to June.
Many models show that The third wave is inevitable However, the magnitude of the case surge depends on the effectiveness of the vaccine, the rate at which restrictions are relaxed, and the impact of new variants on infection and disease.
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Professor Jonathan Van-Tham, Deputy Chief Medical Officer of the United Kingdom, said the United Kingdom is in a “head-to-head” battle to vaccinate its population to overcome the threat of coronavirus mutations in India.
Professor Vantam said scientists will get more information by next week on how contagious the Indian variants are compared to the predominant Kent strain in the UK.
Experts were afraid that it could be up to 50% more infectious, but government advisers suggested that studies could find that it was only half that.
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