Health
The report suggests that Covid-19 could look like a common cold in the future.
According to one study, the new coronavirus that causes COVID-19 can cause common cold-like coughs and snuffs within the next decade.
A study published in the journal Viruses makes this likely prediction based on a mathematical model that incorporates lessons learned from current pandemics about how our body’s immunity changes over time. I will do it.
“This represents a future that may not yet be fully addressed,” said Fred Adler, a professor of mathematics and biological sciences at the University of Utah in the United States.
“Over the next decade, the severity of COVID-19 may decrease as the population develops collective immunity,” Adler said.
This study suggests that changes in the disease may be caused by adaptation of the immune response rather than changes in the virus itself.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus is the most well-known member of the family, but other seasonal coronaviruses are circulating in the population and are less at risk.
Researchers pointed out that there is evidence that one of the relatives responsible for these colds was once terrible and may have caused an outbreak of the “Russian flu” in the late 19th century.
Due to this similarity, scientists wondered if the severity of SARS-CoV-2 could be reduced over time as well.
They constructed a mathematical model that incorporated evidence of the body’s immune response to SARS-CoV-2.
Analyzing several scenarios and their versions sets out situations in which the growing proportion of the population is predisposed to mild illness in the long run.
“In the early days of the pandemic, no one had seen the virus. Our immune system was unprepared,” Adler explained.
Models show that as more adults, whether previously infected or vaccinated, become partially immune, the severe infection almost disappears in the next decade, the researchers say. Stated.
Ultimately, they said that only children who are naturally less susceptible to serious illness will be exposed to the virus for the first time.
“The new approach here is to recognize the competition that is occurring between mild and severe COVID-19 infections and ask which type is long-lasting,” said the University of Utah’s lead study. Author and graduate student Alexander Beams said.
“As long as we train our immune system to fight severe infections, we have shown that mild infections win,” Beams said.
However, the researchers noted that the model does not explain all the potential effects on the trajectory of the disease.
For example, they said COVID-19 could be exacerbated if a new viral variant overcomes partial immunity.
The team also noted that these predictions are only maintained if the key assumptions of the model are maintained.
“The next step is to compare the model’s predictions with the latest disease data to assess which direction we are heading in when the pandemic is occurring,” Adler added.
This story was published from a news agency feed without changing the text. Only the heading has changed.
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