Expert reports predict up to two years of pandemic misery

San Diego (CNN) —The new coronavirus is expected to continue to spread for at least another 18 months to 2 years until it affects 60% to 70% of the population. In the report Released on Thursday.

They recommended that the United States be prepared for the worst scenarios, including the second big wave of coronavirus infections in the fall and winter. They predicted that even in the best scenarios, people would die of the virus.

“It doesn’t stop until 60-70% of people are infected,” Mike Osterholm, who heads the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota, told CNN.

“The idea that this will happen soon is contrary to microbiology.”

Osterholm has been writing about pandemic risks for 20 years and has advised several presidents. He wrote a report with Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard School of Public Health. MarcLipsitch is also a pandemic expert. Dr. Christine Moore, a former Epidemiology Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is currently the Director of Medicine at CIDRAP. Historian John Barry wrote the 2004 book The Great Flu about the 1918 flu pandemic.

Waiting for herd immunity

Since Covid-19 is new, no one has immunity, they said. “The duration of the pandemic will probably be 18 to 24 months, as the herd’s immunity develops progressively in the human population,” they wrote.

Their projections are models presented by groups such as the Institute for Health Index Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington and reports that predict the deaths of millions in the United States and the United Kingdom.

The CIDRAP-led team summarized their predictions using their reports, historical data on past pandemics, and public reports on Covid-19’s medical details.

“I have long said that when trying to understand how infectious diseases evolve, we should rely not only on model but on history,” Lipsic told CNN. For example, pandemic infections do not tend to die in the summer like seasonal flu, he said.

They said Covid-19 is the closest match to a pandemic strain of flu.

“COVID-19 appears to spread more easily than influenza because of the longer incubation period, more subclinical spread, and higher R0,” they wrote in a report. R0 is the average number of others infected with each patient.

“A higher R0 means more people need to get infected and become immune before the pandemic ends,” they add. “Based on the latest influenza outbreak, this outbreak will probably last for 18-24 months.”

Prepare for the worst

They said government officials should stop telling people that a pandemic may end and instead make citizens prepare for the long term.

They said three scenarios are possible:

Scenario 1: The first wave of Covid-19 in the spring of 2020, followed by a series of repeating small waves over the summer, followed by a gradual decline in 2021 over a period of one to two years

Scenario 2: The first wave of Covid-19 is followed by a big wave in autumn or winter, followed by one or more small waves in 2021. “In this pattern, mitigation measures need to be reset in the fall in order to limit the spread. Preventing infections and overwhelming the healthcare system,” they wrote. “This pattern is similar to that seen in the 1918-19 pandemic.”

Scenario 3: A “slow burn” of an ongoing infection. “In this third scenario, cases and deaths will continue to occur, but may not require resetting mitigation.”

The states and territories recommended that the worst scenario, Scenario 2, should be planned.

“Government officials need to develop concrete plans to address peak illnesses, including triggers to restart mitigation,” they advised.

Both Lipsitch and Osterholm said they were surprised at the decision many states have made to lift the restrictions aimed at controlling the spread of the virus.

“I think it’s an experiment. This is an experiment that is likely to sacrifice human life, especially where it does it without careful control trying to figure out when things are going to slow down again. “Lipsic said.

In addition, some states choose to deregulate when there are more new infections than when they decide to impose restrictions.

“It’s difficult to understand even the rationale,” Lipsic said.

Vaccines may help, the report said, but not quickly. “The pandemic history can also be affected by the vaccine, but the vaccine will not be available until at least some point in 2021,” they wrote.

“We also don’t know what challenges will occur that could delay the timeline during vaccine development.”