Are you approaching COVID herd immunity?The expert timeline is evolving rapidly

• US healthcare providers are pushing to vaccinate more than 70% of eligible Americans to approach herd immunity against the new coronavirus.

• Some disease experts believe that achieving true herd immunity, a condition in which COVID-19 infection between individuals is unlikely, will not occur immediately.

• Achieving herd immunity can become increasingly difficult due to new COVID-19 mutants, reduced vaccination coverage, and uncertainty about the duration of immunity.

With more than 37% of the total US population vaccinated against COVID-19, Americans may wonder if their community is approaching. Herd immunity. The term has been disseminated by health professionals and local leaders for over a year and is used in estimates to end lockdowns. Severe social distance last summer.. This is an evasive goal for almost every country in the world, and growing evidence here in the United States suggests that most states cannot position themselves as: I will. mainly Immunity immediately. In most cases, lower vaccination rates and an increase in cases associated with the development of COVID-19 mutants pose a threat to herd immunity not only at the national level, but globally.

That’s not all bad news — President Biden Recently announced His federal government has a new goal of having at least 70% of eligible American adults (And children!) At least once vaccinated independence Day.. An additional goal related to the announcement was to fully inoculate 160 million adults by Independence Day. NPR reportTo roll back more public health restrictions across the country, to stimulate the local economy and hopefully regain a greater sense of normality in time for the summer.

The plan and herd immunity itself all explain that it depends on Americans continuing to go to vaccine clinics. Nelson Michael, MD.., Director Walter Reed Army Research InstituteInfectious Disease Research Center. “For now, it’s a race to vaccinate people, stay ahead of the curve, and anticipate these emerging differences,” he adds.

The story continues

Read on to learn more about herd immunity and why some experts think progress will come, even if true herd immunity has not been achieved.

What is COVID-19 herd immunity?

At its core, herd immunity to COVID-19 is dominated by the majority of the U.S. population. Called a “flock” In this case, Dr. Michael explains — immunity. This is not a cross-border pandemic, but a theoretical step in turning baseline coronavirus disease into endemic disease.If herd immunity is achieved, it is Disease spread slows between individuals, Even if someone has not yet received or acquired immunity.

Dr. Michael compares group immunity to helmet and seatbelt protection. “What we are doing now is that the more people wearing helmets and seat belts, or in this case vaccinated, the more people are protected. Attacking you. . “

After someone becomes infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection, they gain some immunity to getting sick again. However, gaining immunity this way puts a heavy burden on medical resources, as seen in most of 2020 and still in the following states: High infection rate.. Health experts are urging Americans to acquire immunity through vaccination, which can provide more promising immunity than natural infections, as doctors have been well established to date. You can certainly get COVID-19 twice.

For almost all Americans, this is the first pandemic they have ever experienced — but the community has historically achieved herd immunity through vaccination. Outbreaks of smallpox, polio, rubella, and other potentially fatal illnesses have been quelled by vaccines in the past, Dr. Michael explains.And the vaccine Brand new developed to fight COVID-19He adds that there is enough data to know that this vaccine can (at least) prevent an undue burden on our health system.Clinical trial data, you see [vaccines] Prevents COVID illness from becoming an end-of-life event. “

When is herd immunity fully achieved?

In other words, how many people in the United States need to have some immunity to the disease in order to be considered a true herd? This is a complex question, and health professionals need to constantly retrieve data on current infections.

Mayo Clinic Analyst Explain that the US threshold percentage (the percentage of the general public who become ill and is prone to COVID-19) should be lower than the percentage of people who are immune to the disease. Only then will the country reach a true herd immunity.

How many people it is Really,However? “I don’t think anyone knows exactly what that number is. I know it needs to be high,” explains Dr. Michael.

The fact that COVID-19 is highly contagious may drive President Biden’s goal of having 70% of eligible Americans vaccinated by early July. It will be difficult to lower the threshold ratio of the general public below the immune portion, as the disease can easily spread and continue to spread. Mayo Clinic experts, in principle, It is estimated that “94% of the population must have immunity to disrupt the chain of infection.”

It’s all more complicated and complicated By a new COVID-19 variant that poses several threats For vaccinated individuals. Like the immunity acquired after getting sick, the immune response associated with the COVID-19 vaccine probably does not last forever and also provides protection against new variants compared to the conventional disease strains that prevailed in 2020. I will not.Vaccine makers Currently working on additional booster shots just now.

What percentage of Americans are fully vaccinated at this point?

At present, more than 275 million vaccines, partially created by the team of Pfizer, Moderna, Johnson & Johnson, have been administered to approximately 124 million people. Data shows This amount is just over 37% of the US population.

However, the vaccination rate is slower than in early 2021.Data analyst New York Times released Live graph It shows that supply is currently outpacing demand. The average number of individuals receiving the first (or single dose) dose on a particular day has decreased by half since April 13. Times Report. They found that CDC data showed the highest reduction in vaccination among adults aged 18-64 years, despite more than 50% of this demographic expanding eligibility as of early May. He added that it indicates that he has not been vaccinated.

Whether it is a deadline Hesitate about potential side effects Or lack of resources to reach clinics and pharmacies, declining demand for vaccines, can make it much more difficult to reach herd immunity. It also leaves borders and travel largely open, coupled with the fact that vaccination rates around the world are far from close to those in the United States.

“We want to ensure that we protect ourselves as a global community, not just the entire United States. If people abroad are not protected, the virus will continue to spread,” said Dr. Michael. .. Current outbreak in India As a “fire” that can easily spread elsewhere. “There is an example of how vaccines can help us. The best is smallpox. This is a disease that we have eradicated not only at home but around the world. Do the same for polio. We are approaching to do. “

How long does it take to reach herd immunity here in the United States?

For most experts, it is too early to answer this question — and some may believe that complete herd immunity simply cannot be achieved.Finally, the current vaccination Provides protection against serious side effects Or, with fatal consequences, it allows Americans to live with the spread of COVID-19 for now.

Monitoring progress on President Biden July goal may be the best timeline Dr. Michael says he expects benefits closer to herd immunity than ever before. “Epidemiologists had data on other respiratory infections suggesting that when vaccination reaches that level of immunity (70% in this case), the infection curve begins to collapse,” he said. Explained that there are few new infections in the United States. Currently, points compared to all before 2021 and 2020.

“I think the country is getting more and more vaccinated and I think the numbers are declining sharply in the fall season. There is no upward trend due to changes, cold or recurrent relaxation. We want to say so. No. It will return to normal, but it will be closer than ever. “

Vaccines provide a lot of protection, but keep safe and reduce the risk of COVID-19 as Dr. Michael shares that 2% of infected individuals will spread disease-related complications. It is important to adopt best practices for. “There is no mortality like illnesses like Ebola hemorrhagic fever … but some parts of our society, especially people of color, blacks, Latin Americans, Native Americans, and Alaska Natives, are infected and If you are infected, you have long COVID symptoms. The data on this is very clear and should motivate people to avoid risk. “

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