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From Mask to “JASC”: Utah doctors ask what the long-term future of COVID-19 will be

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Salt Lake City — What Happens COVID-19 (New Coronavirus Infection) Does it look like 10 years from now? Scientists at the University of Utah suggest that it may be just a cold. It is based on advanced mathematical modeling by university researchers.

Dr. Fred Adler, a professor of mathematics and biological sciences at the University of Utah, said, “We will never exterminate this. It will never be like natural pox or polio. It will last forever. Probably. ” Utah.

He likes to ask questions that others haven’t asked. So instead of focusing on the short-term dynamics of the virus during a pandemic, we focused on what the coronavirus virus would look like 10 years from now.

“That’s all we do as scientists, right? We try to understand things, and we … seem to work this way. What does that mean? And the mathematical model really The only way to see what that means is to look to the future. “

So Adler and his colleagues developed a model based on lessons learned from the pandemic about how our immunity changes over time. He used three assumptions that could reduce the severity of the coronavirus.

These assumptions are as follows:

  • Children have mild cases.
  • Mild cases tend to produce milder cases.
  • Adults infected or vaccinated with COVID-19 are protected from serious illness.

“If you include all three together, you end up with what’s called JASC. It’s another seasonal coronavirus,” Adler said. If all of these assumptions do not work, something will happen between COVID-19 and another seasonal coronavirus.

“It’s definitely not as bad as it is now, and I hope it ends at the other end, just like another cold,” Adler said. “But it will be somewhere in between. The model helps us to know in advance what we need to measure and study to understand it.”

The study is published in the journal Viruses. Adler hopes that this type of modeling will be used in vaccination planning and public policy in the future.

“If it lasts forever like the cold, we need to use public policy, vaccinations, treatments, and perhaps non-pharmaceutical interventions to make it stay where we want. This is just It’s another cold. “

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