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“Important COVID-19 activities” in the US expected for up to 2 years

 


The United States has another 18-24 monthsImportant COVID-19 activities——About 60-70% of the population will likely be infected, healed, and not end by developing herd immunity, experts said in a new report.

Report, Released on Thursday The Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota warned Americans about the larger waves of COVID-19 infections that occur in the fall and winter, and the worst scenario involving more than one wave in 2021.

The researchers say that even the best scenario-a “slow burn” of ongoing infection and case outbreak-without a clear wave pattern-will continue to cause COVID-19 mortality.

Another possible scenario is that the current wave of virus is followed by a series of small waves during the summer, followed by a gradual decline in 2021 over the next 1-2 years. I can mention.

“It doesn’t stop until 60-70% of people are infected,” said CIDRAP director Mike Osterholm. Told CNN. “The idea that this will happen soon is contrary to microbiology.”

Osterholm, who has been writing about pandemic risks for 20 years and has advised several presidents, has written a report with some other experts. Harvard Public Health Epidemiology Marc Lipsitch. Dr. Christine Moore, Dean of the CIDRAP School of Medicine, who has turned into an epidemiologist at the former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Historian John Barry is the author of the 2004 book The Great Influenza on the 1918 flu pandemic.

Since this virus is new, no one is immune. Therefore, “the immunity of the population gradually develops in the human population, so 18 to 24 months will endure,” the researchers write.

The conductor wears a mask while waiting for passengers to board the New York City Subway.
The conductor wears a mask while waiting for passengers to board the New York City Subway.Reuters / Lucas Jackson

Researchers created predictions using models presented by other research groups, historical data on past pandemics, and published reports on medical details of the disease.

“I have long said that when trying to understand how infectious diseases evolve, we should rely not only on model but on history,” Lipsic told CNN.

Experts also stressed that “COVID-19 seems to spread more easily than influenza.” This is due to the long incubation period, subclinical spread, and high R0, which represents the average number of others infected with each patient.

“A higher R0 means more people need to get infected and become immune before the pandemic ends,” they wrote. “Based on the latest influenza outbreak, this outbreak will probably last for 18-24 months.”

Launch of vaccine Researchers may also influence the progress of the pandemic, but are not expected to be available until at least sometime next year.

“And we don’t know what kind of challenges can occur that can delay the timeline during vaccine development,” they added.

Experts say that even the rationale is difficult to understand, as restrictions are beginning to be lifted in some states.

“I think it’s an experiment,” Lipsic told CNN. “This is an experiment that is likely to sacrifice life, especially where it does so without careful control trying to figure out when things are going to slow down again.”

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