Research has discovered a new way to predict the efficacy of the Covid-19 vaccine

One study identified an immune response associated with protection from COVID-19. This discovery may help reduce the time it takes to develop new vaccines.

Early immune response of vaccinated individuals Coronavirus According to UNSW Sydney Newsroom, an analysis of Australian mathematicians, clinicians and scientists published in Nature Medicine can predict long-term levels of protection against the virus.

Researchers at UNSW’s Kirby Institute, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, and the University of Sydney have identified an “immune correlation” for vaccine protection.

This could dramatically reduce development time for new vaccines by measuring neutralizing antibody levels as a “proxy” for immune defense from COVID-19.

“Neutralizing antibodies are small Y-shaped proteins that our body produces in response to infection and vaccination. They bind to the virus and reduce its ability to infect,” says Deborah of the Kirby Institute. Dr. Cromer said.

“We have long known that neutralizing antibodies are likely to be an important part of the immune response to COVID-19, but we did not know how much antibody was needed for immunity. Our study The strongest evidence ever shown. That particular antibody level leads to a high level of protection from the disease. “

Researchers analyzed data from seven COVID-19 vaccines to see how responses measured immediately after vaccination correlate with protection. We then used statistical analysis to define the specific relationship between immune response and defense. Their analysis was very accurate and could predict the effectiveness of the new vaccine.

According to Dr. Cromer, this finding could change the way the COVID-19 vaccine trial is conducted.

“Antibody immunity levels are much easier to measure than directly measuring vaccine efficacy over time. Therefore, by measuring antibody levels across a range of new vaccine candidates early in clinical trials, You can better determine if you need to use a vaccine to prevent COVID. -19 “he said.

On the other hand, another important application of this analysis is the ability to predict immunity over time. Researchers predict that vaccination immunity to COVID-19 will be significantly reduced within a year, with reduced levels of neutralizing antibodies in the blood in the first few months after infection or vaccination. I have.

“Vaccination is very effective in preventing both symptoms and serious illness in the short to medium term, but most of these vaccines are predicted to be less effective in the first few months. “Also says Dr. David Corey of the Kirby Institute.

“But it is very important to understand the difference between immunity to infection and protection from the development of serious illness. In our study, the level of antibody required to protect against serious illness is 6. It turned out to be one-third. In the first year after vaccination, it begins to lose immunity to mild infections and protection from severe infections should last longer, “says Dr. Khoury.

“But ultimately, for optimal protection against moderate illness and COVID-19 infection, these findings may be considering annual vaccine boosters, as in the case of influenza vaccines. It suggests that there is sex. “

The major global challenges are the evolution of viruses and the emergence of new variants. Based on laboratory studies, there is growing concern that antibodies developed against dominant strains are not very effective in neutralizing these new mutants.

“An additional benefit of our study is that we can predict how well the immune response is protected against a variety of mutants,” said Professor Jamie Triccus of the Charles Perkins Center at the University of Sydney and the School of Medicine and Health. Stated.

“This analysis shows that there is a very good correlation between an immune response that is very easy to test and the effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing infections that are very difficult to test. This means that you can predict how much protection you will have. Compete against different variants without having to determine efficacy for each variant in large, costly clinical trials.

“This work can facilitate decision making by providing the necessary data in a much more efficient way, much earlier in the vaccine development pipeline.”

The limitations of this study are to analyze the relationship between the initial immune response to infection and vaccination and protection from infection (currently available data) and how immunity will change in the future using this relationship. Is to predict. Various viral variants. Future research should aim to confirm these predictions when the data become available.

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