What are you comparing?

What are you comparing?

Covid-19 and flu details.

Stephen L. Taylor

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Saturday, May 2, 2020
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2 comments

Let’s go back to the topic I wrote before. A comparison of deaths from seasonal flu and what we have seen (and planned) for Covid-19. The most comprehensive posts along these lines were easily named Flu vs Covid-19.

First, note that the error occurred on that post. In an attempt to be generous on the “flu-like” side of the discussion, I talked about the death of Covid-19 in a “approximately 3 month” time frame. When I wrote that post on April 14th, we were officially counting the deaths of Covid-19 from February 29th (approximately 6 weeks), so my attempt at generosity really matters. had. Please note that the “influenza season” designated by the CDC is basically the eight-month period from October to May.

Making these comparisons right is very important. One of them is getting a well-defined timeframe. At present, the official death toll for Covid-19 is basically two months. Of course, the “official” is important here. Others in the United States may have died of this disease before February 29. Also, the official death toll (as I have repeatedly noted here at OTB) could be an understatement of the actual death toll. Many people die that’s allCount, but all the empirical data I’ve seen suggests that it’s unlikely.

Now let’s think about the past two months.

February 29, 2020: 1

March 31, 2020: 5,151

April 30, 2020: 63,856.

May starts from 65,753

(Source: World meter).

That is, over 63,000 people died in two months. According to the CDC, the worst death toll in the flu season was 61,000 in the 2017-2018 season (see My previous post number). Also, Current CDC estimate The flu season from 2019 to 2020 ranges from 24,000 to 62,000 deaths by April 4th. Anyone who uses the upper limit of that range in 2019 is dishonest. This should quote the entire potential range.

Therefore, it is worth emphasizing, emphasizing, and emphasizing that Covid-19 has killed about the same number of people, no matter which method is preferred. One month The flu occurred in the worst eight months of the last decade. And it’s worth noting, it did during periods when extreme measures were taken in many of the countries to limit the exposure of the population (we started various actions to social distances. , I worked from home early to mid March).

In other words, comparing the effects of this disease with flu in terms of death, regardless of anything else, is empirical. The flu does not kill people at the same rate, and obviously public health policy must take this into account.

I immediately acknowledge that this does not provide any specific guidance on whether to stay home or tell us how wise the opening of the economy is. But that should rest the notion that “it’s just flu.” That certainly suggests that we are not going to go back to “normal” after the home order expires (just what we want).

The predictions at the moment are: by USAT:

For now, the University of Washington’s widely quoted COVID-19 model Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), often used as a reference in media briefings in the White House, with a maximum range of 114,228, predicts 72,433 deaths by August 4.

[…]

The IHME model has been accused of being overly optimistic. Others predict the country will reach 100,000 deaths in the second half of May. That is the case for the model generated by Los Alamos National LaboratoryIt features detailed state-by-state information, including 1- and 6-week forecasts and status updates.

Youyang Gu, data scientist whose model is one of the following 7 listed on the CDC websiteI agree with the quote in late May to reach the six numbers.

[…]

Gu predicts 166,000 deaths from COVID-19 by August 4

Looking at the data, dramatic The mortality rate will decrease over the next few days, so we’ll reach that 72K figure in early May, not until August. As mentioned above, it’s already over 65,000. It is unbelievably incredible that there will be approximately 7,000 deaths between now and August. Indeed, that’s likely to be high next week (Worldometer reported 1,897 new deaths yesterday, already 868 as of today’s 2:00 pm Eastern Time).

To be honest, I don’t know the right thing about opening a business at this time. ** I know that a) this is a real crisis and b) is not over. And, as a scholar whose research is based on engaging in comparative analysis, calling influenza Covid-19 misses quite a mark, and anyone trying to claim equivalence is doing one of the following: To those who do one of the first two: engaging in dishonesty, developing lazy thoughts, or listening.

It should be pointed out that we cannot know the actual mortality because we do not know the true infection rate. There are many things we do not know, so it is foolish to make many firm conclusions during the crisis. Still, the sum of live deaths, both the official number and unexplained unexplained deaths, should provide ample empirical evidence to shut down those who would like to compare this to the flu.

Let’s summarize the conclusions. Only Covid-19 deaths in April 2020 outweigh the recent seasonal flu deaths, and in fact worst Recent flu season. 1 month vs full season.

* I don’t know if CDC counts include non-season flu deaths. This is where non-professional matters. I admitted how the CDC explained mortality in this case, and couldn’t find any additional information, so to be fair, the seasonal flu death was eight months. Means a period.

** This is not an abstraction to me. I am directly involved in deciding how multi-campus universities will operate in the fall.