Updated primary care risk calculation tools to help prevent CVD in Europe

The risk calculation tool for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease has been described by the British Heart Foundation (BHF) as the new “Gold Standard” and has helped fund the research that underpins it.

“This risk tool is far more powerful and better than the one we have been using for decades.”

Emanuele di Angelantnio

Charities said patients flagged by the tool as having high cardiovascular risk could receive individual prophylaxis, such as statins, or lifestyle advice.

Tool development European Society of Cardiology We would like to revise the currently recommended risk prediction algorithm known as Systematic Coronary Risk Assessment (SCORE).

This is because SCORE does not take into account substantive risk fluctuations in countries in the same risk area. This means that in these situations SCORE can “misestimate” the risk.

The resulting SCORE2 is a state-of-the-art algorithm tailored to the European population that predicts the 10-year risk of the first onset of cardiovascular disease with greater accuracy than current tools.

Tools published in the journal today European Heart JournalBased on known risk factors for heart and cardiovascular disease, such as age, gender, cholesterol levels, blood pressure, and smoking.

Researchers say this was a coveted upgrade from SCORE developed using pre-1986 data and underestimated cardiovascular risk in some countries.

The SCORE2 risk calculation tool takes into account the current trends in heart and cardiovascular disease, can predict both fatal and non-fatal conditions, and is adaptable to countries with varying levels of risk.

The upgrade will provide a more accurate estimate of cardiovascular risk for young people and improve treatments for older people and those living in high-risk areas throughout Europe, the researchers said.

“Determining the patients at greatest risk for these conditions will be the new gold standard for physicians.”

Niresh Samani

According to the British Heart Foundation (BHF), which helped fund the study, risk-calculating tools “make it easier to predict people at high risk for heart and cardiovascular disease years before they develop.”

To develop new risk calculation tools, researchers across Europe analyzed data from 45 previous studies of approximately 700,000 participants (mostly middle-aged).

Research participants had no history of cardiovascular disease at the time of recruitment, and over the next 10 years, 30,000 people experienced events involving death or non-fatal heart attack or stroke.

We then “realigned” the tool with region-specific cardiovascular and risk factor data from 10.8 million people to more accurately estimate the risk of a population divided into four regions in Europe.

Professor Emanuele di Angelantnio of the University of Cambridge BHF Research Excellence Center, one of the researchers involved in the development of SCORE2, said, “This risk tool is better than what doctors have used for decades. Is also much more powerful and superior.

“It seamlessly fits into current prevention programs that have a significant impact on the real world by improving prevention before the onset of cardiovascular disease across Europe.”

Professor Niresh Samani, Medical Director of BHF, said: “This new risk tool is a huge step forward and will save more people from heart attacks, strokes and the development of heart disease.

“For physicians, identifying patients at greatest risk for these conditions and being able to provide customized treatment and lifestyle advice earlier will be a new gold standard for physicians.”

This study was conducted by the SCORE2 Working Group and the European Society of Cardiology Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration.

In addition to BHF, we received support from the UK Medical Research Council, the UK National Institute of Health, the Cambridge Medical Research Center, and Health Data Research UK.