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How to Prevent or Limit COVID Third Wave: Johns Hopkins Epidemiologist Explains

How to Prevent or Limit COVID Third Wave: Johns Hopkins Epidemiologist Explains

 


A major epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health first increased the R number and waved.

The R number is the number of people who are infected in turn. Therefore, a R number of 1.5 means that 100 people will infect another 150 people. The four factors are summarized in the acronym DOTS. Here, S stands for “percentage of the vulnerable population” and O stands for “the number of chances of infection, that is, a super-spreading event in which many infect a small number of individuals.” , T stands for “probability of infection” and D stands for “duration of infection”.

In a 25-minute interview with Karan Thapar wireDr. Brian Wahl, who is also a member of the Johns Hopkins India Institute COVID-19 Response Task Force, said that any of the four factors that make up DOTS can prevent or limit another wave on its own.

This means that people should wear masks with great care and maintain social distance at all times, preferably indoors, even when there are outsiders. Dr. Wall said large rallies must be avoided. While this completely eliminates political rallies, it also suggests that it is best to avoid large open markets where people sometimes gather in the thousands. They are outdoors and safer than large indoor gatherings, but it is best to keep them away.

Dr. Wall emphasized the need for ventilation at all times and suggested that doors and windows should be kept open to ensure continuous ventilation, even in air-conditioned rooms.

But when asked whether the Government of Delhi or the Government of Maharashtra was too early to open a mall or restaurant, he didn’t give a definite answer. In this regard, please note that the UK only allows indoor dining in restaurants during the second or third stage of unlocking. The first step was limited to restaurants that could serve meals outdoors. In Delhi and Mumbai, although limited to 50% of capacity, indoor dining is immediately permitted.

At the same time, Dr. Wall talked about the steps the government must take to reduce the proportion of the sensitive population. First, he said a “well-defined seroprevalence study” was needed to determine the size of this population. It also identifies whether it is present in that location or in a large cluster because it is not evenly distributed throughout the country.

The second important step that the government must take is mass vaccination. As of today (June 15, 2021), only 3.7% of the population is receiving both doses, and nearly 16% are receiving one dose. There is still a long way to go before effective mass vaccination levels are achieved.

However, Dr. Wall was reluctant to identify the percentage level at which herd immunity works. He said it varies depending on different regions, population uniformity, predominant viral variants, and other such factors.

Finally, seeing a recent discovery by Public Health England that a delta variant has mutated into a more toxic form called Delta + or AY.1 – officially named B.1.617.2.1 – Dr. Wall , India said that genome sequencing needs to be significantly enhanced. Wear masks and social distance with strict and meticulous care.

View full interview Here..

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