The resurrection of the American political establishment | United States

Joe Biden has risen.

His resurrection is the resurrection of the establishment.

In this case, and in this context, the resurrection of the Democratic Party as a political party by, for and for the establishment. A political party that will embrace and protect the status quo of money:money in politics, the influence of buying money and the exercise of power by money – albeit in a polite andare used, not in the vulgar, low life, rubbing everyone's face, Trump style.

Joe absolutely represents the establishment. Barack Obama chose him, the world's oldest oldest white man, as his vice president to counteract the drastic shock of having an African American president. At the start of this race, all figures in the party establishment and the media embraced him.

The positive is that he is about as honest and decent a representative of the breed as there is.

1,991 delegates are required to win the nomination.

Right now, Biden has 565 in Sandersit is506. Although some of these figures represent estimates and change, the basic ratio is correct. The consensus – particularly the establishment's consensus – is that the Super Tuesday victories that led us to this delegate count put Biden on the path to some victory. Unless unforeseen discordant events occur, this is likely to be true.

In the candidate selection process, delegates are allocated proportionately. In real elections, this only happens in two minor states – Maine and Nebraska. In everything else, the winner – albeit by one vote – gets all of that state's votes.

This introduces a whole set of distortions.

The most important thing is that winning the primary may have nothing to do with winning the general election.

What states are really up for grabs?

There are all kinds of surveys and trend tracking and all that, but the most realistic and practical view isatSuppose all of the states that became Republicans in the 2008 Obama-McCain election are Republicans, and all of those who chose Hillary Clinton against Donald Trump in 2016 are Democrats. According to this golden rule, only one of the 14 states that had Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday will be genuinely challenged in the 2020 elections – North Carolina.

Yes, the Dems dream of converting Texas. The media love this idea because itIs exciting. But it is very unlikely. If they win Texas, it will mark a change as radical as Ronald Reagan's victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980, when he took all states except the Six and the District of Columbia.

The establishments' selling points against Sanders and for Biden (or – so far – a Biden surrogate) have been that Trump would beat a radical, but fall into one type of establishment. It somehow makes sense. Americans vote for a socialist? Never! Except that they elected an African American!Then an orange-skinned grabb, pu ***uhwith a long history of cheating.

Both represent revolts against the establishment. Biden, who lost his two previous attempts, could certainly be the Hillary of 2020. Does the electorate have enough rage and disgust at the Trump version of the destruction of the settlements to vote and vote for a return to the dull and ancient virtues? Sanders voters see Biden's appointment as manipulation of the establishment, will they come to vote or stay at home to sulk?

In many states – including California Super Tuesday, Massachusetts, Minnesota and even Virginia –do notmatter – because of the electoral college. These are Dem States.

We havedo notyet had primaries in most states where it matters.

We are far from seeing how the different factions will behave in real elections.

Right now, it looks like Biden is the candidate. But there is a level on which Sanders has already won. Party positions on health care, raising taxes on the wealthy, the Green New Deal,do notcome from Biden, they came from Bernie. It would be great if he – and his supporters – could celebrate this. Besides, if Biden can too and thanks you, please join us to make your ideas a reality.

Almost like a footnote, it raises the question of prosecution.

Suppose a Democrat wins.

Trump, his family, and his administration are plagued by corruption and abuse of the law. One of the Obama administration’s great persistent flaws has been not to prosecute the financial crimes that led to the 2008 crash. Obama was very impatient to say, "Hey, I am the one of you. not be afraid. "But it turned against him. The people's rage against the wealthy turned to the right. It became the Tea Party and then the Trumpers. It put the seal of Obama on the era of disclaimer, and Trump ran with it.

Biden and the establishment figures around him peddle "reconciliation". If this does not lead to any prosecution, it will be a huge mistake. It will also be an affront to the truth. It is only in criminal proceedings, with documents dragged by subpoena and testimony under penalty of perjury, that any kind of harsh truth is established. Everything else stays, "he said, she said," Kellyanne Conway's universe "alternative facts", Trump-verse where there is no consequence for lying.

This is not an issue that no Democrat has faced. It is unclear whether it would be negative or positive as a campaign issue. Trump ran over it. "Lock her up, lock her up!" It worked well for him. Will it work better or worse when there are real crimes to be prosecuted?

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of Al Jazeera.