Deep inside UK’s shocking Covid data, there may be reasons for optimism | covid

It is difficult to be optimistic about the latest figures. Government Covid dashboard full of red and upward pointing arrows. New cases increased by 17% during the week. Hospital admissions increased by 11% and deaths by 21%. This is not where we hoped it would be 10 months after the start of the most successful large-scale vaccination campaign in NHS history.

So, is this something we should get used to? Nearly 1,000 hospitalizations per day and nearly 1,000 deaths per week? Reliable predictions are an illusion because pandemics have so many forces operating at different times and moving in opposite directions. However, looking at the data closely, there may be several reasons to be optimistic.

A major driver of the UK epidemic is student infection rates, as too many adults are well-protected after vaccination, infection, or both. According to data from the National Statistical Office, the number of cases surged in middle schools who attended after the summer. This was bound to happen. At least in the UK, safeguards in schools have been minimal. The decision to vaccinate healthy children was later than elsewhere, and the process was difficult and slow.

ONS estimates that 8.1% of children in grades 7-11 will test positive for coronavirus during the week ending October 9. This equates to about 5% being infected every week and added to the immune pool. A significant number of children in London may have had antibodies to the virus after summer and before returning to school. A natural infection based on immunity for a few weeks may soon start to drop the incidence. And as students spread the infection into the community, a national example could follow.

However, England is not London and not all children are equally protected. In London, new cases of COVID-19 are barely increasing, suggesting that the capital may be nearing a peak, at least for the time being. Cases are growing rapidly in the southwest region, where children’s immunity is thought to have been much lower before school started. If herd immunity starts to reduce cases, it will happen by city and region, rather than a coordinated wave across the UK. As always, other factors cloud the water, including mixing patterns, especially among adults. In London, for example, we lower our exposure because our telecommuting rate is much higher than in many other locations.

The modeler’s answer to one question is how much Scotland can tell us. When Scotland’s secondary schools opened in mid-to-late August, the proportion of students who tested positive rose sharply. Rates peaked at 8%-10% before cases began to decline by age group. At the same time, at the beginning of September, domestic cases fell sharply. Scotland’s daily cases have been cut by more than half in a month.

England could follow suit in the coming weeks, but there is uncertainty. Because Scotland was quicker to vaccinate students, their immunity may have been higher than those in England before returning to school. If the tide is starting to change for teens in the UK, the first sign from ONS data this Friday may be a slowing pace of infection.

Coronavirus cases could reach 100,000 a day this winter, Javid video says.

That’s not the end. Vaccines are excellent at preventing serious diseases, but they are much less effective at stopping the virus from spreading, and the immunity of particularly vulnerable people is steadily weakening. Meanwhile, children are the only people close to pre-epidemic levels of contact with others. Adults began to increase mixing but did not return to previous levels. Above all, as England’s Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty said, winter is coming. All of this can cause additional waves of infection.

John Edmunds, a member of Sage and professor of epidemiology and population health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the epidemic had appeared relatively stable over the past few months, but it ostensibly covered up major changes. With the rise and fall of the immunity level by age group, the immunity level of children generated by various processes is rapidly increasing due to the skyrocketing high infection rate, while the immunity of the elderly who received the vaccine at the beginning of the year is declining.

“It is very difficult to predict how these dynamics will play out right now, but it is clear that increasing the rate of vaccine release in children and boosters in adults will help in the short and long term,” he added.

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