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In Europe, confusion reigns in the United States

 


After almost two years of absence due to the Covid in Paris and Berlin, I returned to the old world to make a surprising discovery: Europe no longer includes the United States. Between Washington’s shift to the Indo-Pacific, the lingering effects of the Trump presidency (as well as fears of a return in 2024) and the confusing signals emanating from the Biden administration, neither the Germans nor the French know more what to expect. This uncertainty further complicates the difficult task of recasting the Atlantic alliance for a new turbulent era.

The most significant misunderstandings imply that the Americas continue to pivot towards the Indo-Pacific. After the Aukus explosion last month, the French and Germans no longer doubt the pivot is real, but few in Europe have fully understood what it means.

Many Europeans, including some seasoned observers of the transatlantic scene, believe that if the United States sees the Indo-Pacific as the main focus of its foreign policy, it must sweep the rest of the world. These observers watch the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and imagine that is the kind of setback they can expect from America in Europe and the Middle East.

It’s unlikely. American interests are global, and American presidents, like it or not, cannot limit their attention to one world theater. During the Cold War, Western Europe was the primary focus of American foreign policy, but the United States also fought two major wars in Asia. The energy crisis has already forced President Biden to pay more attention to the Middle East. China’s efforts to gain influence in the Middle East and Europe will draw Washington’s attention to its former NATO partners, as will Moscow’s continued alignment with Beijing.

The Chinese challenge makes the United States less isolationist, not more, and the global nature of Chinese ambitions will force US presidents to forge alliances and work cooperatively with allies around the world.

Europeans are also struggling to grasp what the United States expects from its former allies in this new struggle. Britain, France and even Germany have sent symbolic military forces to the Pacific this year. Americans appreciate the spirit behind these gestures, but European aid in the Pacific means less to the United States than many Europeans, accustomed to the American eagerness for Allied involvement in places like Afghanistan, s ‘wait there.

Few in the United States expect Europeans to provide meaningful military assistance in the Pacific. And while for domestic political reasons, US presidents value European diplomatic support for US military engagements in the Middle East, European support for deployments in the Americas-Pacific region carries less weight. Japan, Australia, Vietnam, India and other Indo-Pacific partners will be the countries the United States turns to in times of regional crises.

Sending symbolic forces to the Pacific in the hope of winning America’s gratitude and cooperation on other issues may be a strategic impasse, but there are other steps Europeans can take to maintain strong transatlantic ties. in dangerous times. They can better handle diplomatic and security issues near their homes so that the United States can transfer resources to the Indo-Pacific, and they can join the United States in their efforts to make the international system more efficient. against Chinese bad behavior on issues ranging from violations of global trade rules to the use of excessive and unnecessary influence in groups like the World Health Organization. By keeping the international system robust and attractive, European countries can help convince Chinese leaders that their best path to a more prosperous and secure future lies in cooperation with existing international agreements and meeting global standards.

In addition to misinterpreting the implications of the Chinese challenge, many Europeans also misunderstand the state of the American union. Perhaps because so many senior Europeans have their take on the United States in the more partisan and less weighted sectors of the American press and academy, a surprising number of people here think Donald Trump came within inches of preventing President Biden’s inauguration the last time around. January. Fears that the US military will somehow support the coup, or that the conservative majority in the Supreme Court will abandon its constitutional principles to pave the way for a Trumpist putsch, have won the day. more membership in Europe than sober Americans might expect.

Paradoxically, the strength of this conviction weakens Mr. Bidens’ diplomacy in Europe. The fear of American instability undermines European confidence in Mr Bidens’ promises and commitments and strengthens the conviction of some Europeans that they are living in a post-American era in which Europe is alone.

To some extent, these misunderstandings are due to both the isolation and the emotional stress of the pandemic, and as travel resumes, they will start to fade. But to the extent that distorted perceptions inform European politics, Americans should give more thought to effective communication with their former allies, even as we prepare for the new challenges ahead.

Newspaper Editorial Report: Does Joe Biden Even Have a Border Policy? Image: Pedro Pardo / AFP via Getty Images

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