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Bird flu is back in the United States. No one knows what comes next

 


To understand the significance of these three ducks and the virus they were carrying, we need to take a quick tour of the flu school. Lesson One: The influenza virus family tree is vast and sprawling; it contains types A, B, C, D and the subtypes, denoted by Hs and Ns. (These are short for proteins that allow the virus to infect cells.) Within Ace alone, there are almost 200 subtypes; a few affect humans, but almost all can infect birds.

Second lesson: for a long time, scientists thought that humans were at little risk from all these other strains of influenza. This assumption was shattered in 1997, when a bird flu, H5N1, jumped one species in Hong Kong and infected 18 people, killing six of them. To shut it down, the local government culled all the chickens in the territory, depriving the virus of a host. It worked for a few years, but in 2003 H5N1 started moving around the world again, and it hasn’t stopped moving ever since.

Third lesson: Avian flu can be dangerous for humans, but it also threatens certain birds. Waterfowl, mainly ducks, carry it without disease, but it makes chickens sick. Again, there are subcategories: Avian flu can be low pathogenic, that is, it makes birds mildly ill and slows egg production. Or it can be highly pathogenic or highly pathogenic: a fast-spreading infection so vicious it can kill an entire herd in two days. (A prominent poultry researcher once called it Ebola chicken.)

To sum it all up (there will be no quiz): the flu found in the Carolinas is an H5N1, which means it belongs to the subtype that normally infects birds but has made people sick in the pass. It’s a high-pitched variety, the kind that can wipe out domesticated herds. It belongs to a strain related to that first species crossover jump in 1997. And, to make matters worse, it represents just one example of a remarkable amount of highly pathogenic H5N1 appearing in the world right now.

Last year, the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) estimated that between May 1 and November 1, 41 countries experienced outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, with 16,000 virus isolates reported alone. ‘in October. Fifteen countries also reported outbreaks between October and December.

Occasional bird flu isolations in wild birds are not unusual, but last autumn high-trajectory H5N1 began to break out in the UK with extraordinary intensity. Since October and up to this year, the virus has been found in wildlife including swans, geese, shorebirds and birds of prey. But it has also invaded poultry farms, mainly in Lincolnshire and Yorkshire. By January, more than a million chickens and other birds had been destroyed to prevent its spread. In December, the UK’s chief veterinarian described the outbreak of bird flu there as phenomenal, saying the strain had spread to the largest number of farm properties ever seen.

Almost at the same time, Dutch authorities ordered the culling of hundreds of thousands of poultry on farms across the country. In the Czech Republic, more than 100,000 hens died of bird flu at an egg farm, and another 100,000 birds and about 1 million eggs were destroyed to prevent the virus from spreading further. In France, farmers feared that the virus could invade the south-west of duck farming, the homeland of foie gras. Last week, the Ministry of Agriculture ordered the culling of 2.5 million birds. In Italy, more than 4 million poultry died or were slaughtered between October and December. And the Friedrich Loeffler Institute, the German government’s animal disease research unit, said in late December that Europe was experiencing the biggest outbreak of bird flu ever, with cases reaching as far north as the Faroe Islands and as far south as Portugal. .

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