What New Conservative Voters Really, Really Want: Better NHS | James Johnson | Opinion

Tthis is the budget that Downing Street hoped to demonstrate to its new voters that they were right to trust the Conservatives. Instead, it became the coronavirus budget, with message # 10 to voters in the North and Midlands half postponed while the Treasury tries to protect the economy.

But the time to reassure these new voters will finally come. So far, the government has said its way of doing things is to improve the country by improving infrastructure, transport links and main streets outside of London and the south. We have heard of Northern Powerhouse Rail, better bus lines and a transpennine tunnel. We are told that the way to block the new Conservative vote is through infrastructure.

However, the research I have done since the election with these new conservative voters suggests that this approach is overrated and may misinterpret the group. For all the talk about new infrastructure projects, voters will judge the government on something much more totemic, more closely tied to their National Health Service values.

The opinion that the curators' fortune depends on the extent to which they can deliver is accurate. The voters I spoke to in the newsgroups in the seats won by the Conservatives are ready to vote again for the Labor Party. They say Boris Johnson will have to get things done, keep his word, if he wants to keep his vote. But saying that, people generally think of the NHS and expect real and tangible improvements over the next four years.

This is confirmed in the surveys that we have conducted. Among the people who have moved from Labor to the Conservatives, their top priority for the government is to invest in the NHS. On a list of Conservative promises during the election, 50,000 more nurses are considered the most important. And when people were asked explicitly how they would rate the record for conservative parties in the next election, 62% say it will depend on improving the NHS. This is a higher proportion than those who say that the most important criterion is a clear break with the EU or the performance of the economy. It is striking that my local area has improved by only 9% and that the transport infrastructure has improved by 3%. What is worrisome to the Conservatives is more than a simple wish: improvements to the NHS are an expectation. Of all the things they believe the government will actually do, investing in the NHS is the first.

What do people mean when they say they want improvements to the NHS? They mean more doctors, more nurses, more locally and nationally upgraded beds. They mean they want to see the new Conservative-promised nurse’s grant, a commitment that has reached an almost universal threshold. It's not just more money; voters also want to reduce waste. They talk about back office functions, overpriced drugs and managerial culture diverting resources from the front line.

People don't ask for the moon. The public is smarter than many experts recognize and know that a government cannot improve everything overnight. Rather, they want to see the movement in the right direction. A greater risk for the government is exaggeration. Voters feel that party promises have already done so. If the government inflates the figures to illustrate the results, it could backfire.

The NHS isn't the only game in town. Immigration is also important, these voters want to see a reduction in the number of people entering the country as well as controls on who can enter. Although studies show that immigration is shrinking as a problem among the general public, it is still one of the first things to among voters who have left the Labor Party 39; last year.

There are other things they want to see. Better parking, commercial rates, better jobs, investments in rail, less congestion on the roads. All of these things are there and should not be dismissed. But politics is prioritization. And on the whole, they are far from the centrality of health services. This will be the benchmark on which this government will be judged. In one of my focus groups, a colleague asked why the NHS was so important. The answer? It’s in our blood. You don't hear of a new bus line.

Demonstrating progress in health will be crucial to the success of the Conservatives. Boris Johnson would do well to put him at the forefront of his public communications for the next few years.

And in many ways, this budget will give voters what they want. Due to the coronavirus, it is likely to focus quite strongly on the NHS and its operational availability. But with the same constituents so sensitive to the state of health services, the political risks brought by the coronavirus are immense, especially given the pressure it can exert on hospitals and intensive care units. .

Transport, infrastructure, high streets for everything we hear about them, they pale in comparison to the National Health Service and, also, to immigration. It is not surprising. Let's go back to the 2016 referendum campaign, where immigration was the main reason why people voted on leave and where the NHS up to the red bus was the key to victory for leave campaigns.

The main leaders of Vote Leave are now in government. And, in terms of how they are judged, they will have to reap what they have sown.

James Johnson is a former Downing Street pollster who worked under Theresa May and now directs JL Partners