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12% increase in UK retail spending will note | business

 


On the other hand, a 12% increase in retail spending over the past month fits with the notion that the economy will quickly recover from Covid-19 once the lockout limit is fully lifted.

In some parts of the UK on June 15th, even before non-essential stores start trading, a May rise seems to coincide with the idea of ​​a V-shaped recovery. March; 18% decline in April, when quarantine was the most intense; Much stronger pickup than expected in May.

However, there are reasons to be a bit careful. First of all, retail sales between 3 months and May were still a better guide to the trend, still 14% lower than in February 3 months when spending did not affect the epidemic.

Retail sales account for about a third of total consumer spending

Retail sales should not be confused with consumer spending. Retail sales are products that people buy in stores or online. Consumer spending includes services such as dining at a restaurant or staying at a hotel, and some of these economies remain closed.

Retail sales account for only about a third of total consumer spending, and as pointed out by Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Consulting, some money spent on services is likely to be spent on retail products. He instead gives examples of people who spend money purchased from gym equipment.

The burden on the economy is underlined as a separate official figure for public borrowing. This was recorded in May due to the impact of 550 million locks. The government is paying up to 80% of the VAT’s wages while at the same time being deprived of tax revenues.

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The UK is rapidly adding to its national debt by summing all the deficits in all deficits and totals over time by borrowing more than $100 billion in the first two months of the 2020-21 fiscal year. As part of the economy, national debt has risen over 100% for the first time since the beginning of 1963, the year of the Profumo scandal and Beatlemania.

Naturally, the debt ratio fell at a much higher level due to borrowing during World War II. A steep plan will begin in early August and will end in October, as financial conditions will be uncomfortable due to record peace time borrowing and a higher debt ratio.

The biggest unknown is whether households will continue to spend as wage subsidies are eliminated and unemployment continues to rise. If so, the likelihood of a V-shaped recession will be greatly improved, but it is still premature to do so.

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