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Why the United States must make a deal with the Taliban

Why the United States must make a deal with the Taliban

 


Following the earthquake in Afghanistan last week that killed at least 1,000 people and rendered tens of thousands homeless, the Biden administration should accept the Taliban in its request for international assistance and seek to find a more general modus vivendi with a government that, like him or not, now runs the country. The very survival of a large part of the Afghan population is at stake. The counter-terrorism interests of the Americas would also be well served by such an agreement.

Since the fall of the previous government last summer, and with it the departure of most foreign aid, as well as the reimposition of Western sanctions and the freezing of most of the country’s modest foreign assets, Afghanistan has in crisis. The situation has partly stabilized in recent months, but only at a much lower standard of living than before, and Afghanistan has always been poor. Over the past year, Afghanistan’s economy has shrunk by perhaps 30%; 22 million of its 41 million inhabitants lack food and 8 million acutely; the health system is in tatters. The dramatic improvements made since 2001 in child survival rates (with mortality rates reduced by about a third), average lifespan (with average longevity increased by about six years) and other measures of human well-being are disappearing.

Of course, no agreement can or should be unconditional. The Taliban remain an extremist organization with harsh leanings in how they govern their nation.

So if the Biden administration were to lead an international effort to strike a deal with the Taliban, it should insist on at least minimum standards for women’s and minority rights, as well as some travel and press freedoms, in return. diplomatic recognition and some limited degree of economic assistance. Taliban barriers to secondary school, higher education and many government positions for women must be removed, and reports of mistreatment of political opponents must be investigated when they produce. There must also be dialogue and information sharing on the terrorist threat from Afghanistan, even if the Taliban will not actively collaborate with us against extremists.

The politics of that idea may be unappealing to a Biden administration still reeling from the August troop withdrawal debacle, captured on TV for all to see, in Kabul and the rest of the country. Afghanistan. But it’s a manageable risk. After all, rightly or not, most Americans agreed with President Bidens’ decision to withdraw US forces (and therefore all NATO/foreign forces) before the withdrawal.

Despite all the problems, things could be much worse in Afghanistan, suggesting a degree of Taliban restraint that can perhaps be built on. Former leaders such as Afghan President Hamid Karzai still live safely in the country, although at least for a time Karzai was under house arrest. There were no reports of massacres and relatively few reports of extrajudicial executions. A limited UN presence, including the World Health Organization, is on the ground. There are restrictions on women’s movements and dress, but this is also the reality in conservative Muslim societies. All of this can be overwhelming with low praise in fact, it’s not praise at all. The Taliban remain extremely problematic as a regime in power. But like it or not, they are now this diet.

The Taliban need help, as they said again when asking for help after the recent earthquake. Nor do they seem eager to resume military combat with the United States, as evidenced by their flawed but still considerable collaboration with us in enabling a massive evacuation effort from the country in August. This suggests a basis for some relaxation.

Thus, the outline of an agreement can be imagined:

Food and health care must be made available to all without prejudice based on gender, religion or politics; Girls and women should have basic educational and legal rights, just like minorities, including access to higher education and employment opportunities; If there is to be a version of Sharia, it should only be instituted in consultation with other conservative Sunni countries where such legal codes and sanction systems have been moderated over the years; there must be no active collaboration between the Taliban and al-Qaeda, and the Taliban must accept that if they cannot control ISIS-K in their territory, we can take direct action against it ourselves at a given time; In return, the international community will recognize the Taliban as the government of Afghanistan, allow access to some of the country’s foreign assets each year, and provide considerable humanitarian assistance for years to come, as needed (although it is significantly lower than the amounts of aid provided previously). The Biden administration is already considering a deal on foreign currency assets; it should be accelerated and expanded.

For all this work to be verifiable, the Taliban must accept an international observer mission to monitor these promises. The mission must be empowered to investigate any acts of violence that may violate Taliban amnesty promises to former enemies, and to monitor courts and prisons. The operation could operate under the auspices of the UN and be composed mainly of troops from Muslim-majority countries (not counting Afghanistan’s neighbors). These missions are inexpensive and respect the three doctrinal rules of peacekeeping: consent, impartiality and the use of force only in self-defence. They have a good track record around the world for holding parties to ceasefires or peace agreements accountable through transparency, cajoling and, if necessary, withholding financial aid. They also help deter further rounds of civil war.

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This type of deal would not turn Afghanistan into a foreign policy success story for the United States and the wider global community. But it could help preserve the security, livelihood and basic rights of 41 million Afghans who have no choice but to look away from the fate of their country today, even though many in Washington would love to do so.

Michael OHanlon is the Philip H. Knight Professor of Defense and Strategy at the Brookings Institution and author of several books, including The Art of War in an Age of Peace: US Grand Strategy and Resolute Restraint and Defense 101: Understanding the Military of Today and tomorrow. Follow him on Twitter @MichaelEOHanlon.

Lise Howard is Professor of Government and External Service at Georgetown University and Chair of the Academic Council of the United Nations System. She is the author of Power in Peacekeeping. Follow her on Twitter @HowardLise.

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2/ https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3544384-why-the-us-must-do-a-deal-with-the-taliban/

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