A new poll from the University of Wyoming shows Republican U.S. House candidate Harriet Hageman leading Congresswoman Liz Cheney by nearly 30 points heading into primary election day.
The survey was conducted by the Wyoming Survey and Analysis Center between July 25 and August 6. He received 562 responses from likely Wyoming voters in the upcoming primary and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.
Overall, 57% of those planning to vote in the Republican primary will vote for Hageman, with only about 28% indicating they will vote for Cheney. It also shows that 41% are voting against Cheney instead of strongly supporting one of his opponents. UW political scientist Jim King said that says a lot.
When you have a candidate, especially Hageman, with a big lead but about two-fifths of his support is from people who oppose the incumbent, that clearly puts us in a referendum-style election, and Cheney loses the referendum , King said.
While the poll shows 98% of Democratic crossover voters supporting Cheney, King noted that she only attracted 43% of independents while 41% of those backed Hageman.
For Cheney to succeed, in particular, she has to do very well among independents, and she doesn’t do well enough to overcome Hageman’s advantage among Republican identifiers, King said.
He added that the numbers show the Democrats’ switching of parties will have little impact on the end result.
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