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Tropical Storm Ian strengthens, US at risk of landfall

Tropical Storm Ian strengthens, US at risk of landfall

 


Tropical Storm Ian has strengthened a little over the past 24 hours. Winds are up to 50 mph. At 7 a.m., the storm was located 320 miles SSE of Grand Cayman and 590 miles SE of the western tip of Cuba.

It is heading towards an area with a very high ocean heat content. The swirling mass of thunderstorms will move over 87 F water near Jamaica and Cuba – water that hasn’t been tapped by a tropical cyclone since last year. Typically, a hurricane only requires 80 F water to grow and survive.

When storm winds blow over the surface of the ocean, heat and moisture are drawn up into the storm, condensing into clouds. Heat from the sea, then released again in the condensation process, warms the core of the storm, further creating a positive feedback loop that invigorates vertical motion and tightens the storm’s circulation.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman and a hurricane watch is posted for the far western portion of Cuba.

A first landfall is expected sometime Tuesday as the then-future hurricane crosses the far western tip of Cuba as a Category 3 storm.

The most recent models show a second landfall could occur in the eastern Florida Panhandle. This course formalizes the fact that Ian will become the first named storm in the Gulf in 2022.

The “Cone of Uncertainty” updated by the National Hurricane Center

This will be Florida’s first hurricane since Hurricane Michael on October 10, 2018. Michael was a devastating Category 5 storm in the Panhandle with winds up to 161 mph when it made landfall near Tyndall AFB just south -east of Panama City.

Stay with the KXAN First Warning Weather Team as we follow the progress of the storm.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/first-u-s-hurricane-strike-of-2022-expected-next-week/

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