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How the change of religion could affect the future of Christianity in the United States

How the change of religion could affect the future of Christianity in the United States

 


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Earlier this month, the Pew Research Center released a study exploring how the religious composition of the United States could change by 2070. One of the findings of the study that caught widespread attention is that the Christians who made up 64% of the nations population in 2020 may not be the majority in five decades.

But the future evolution of Christianity in the United States is not set in stone. Whether the United States will continue to have a Christian majority in 2070 will depend on many factors, including one that was central to the Center’s new study: religious change, i.e. changes volunteers of religious affiliation.

Religious alternation goes in all directions. It can be the change from one type of Christianity to another, from Christianity to another religion, or from Christianity to no religion at all.

Religious alternation goes in all directions. It can be the change from one type of Christianity to another, from Christianity to another religion, or from Christianity to no religion at all.

Research has shown that religious change tends to happen when people are younger, usually starting in their late teens. We estimate that between the ages of 15 and 29, 31% of Americans who were raised as Christians become religiously unaffiliated, a group that includes atheists, agnostics, or those who describe their faith as nothing special. (This does not necessarily mean that they abandon all religious beliefs. Many of these so-called nons believe in God or a universal spirit. But by a wide variety of measures of religion and spirituality, they tend to be less religious and less spiritual than Americans who identify with Christianity and other religions.)

We also estimate that before they turn 30, 21% of Americans who were raised with no religious affiliation convert, formally or informally, to Christianity.

The difference between these two percentages, 31% of Christians becoming unaffiliated, while 21% of unaffiliated Americans become Christians, may seem small. But the difference is actually huge because of the imbalance in the size of the two groups: many more Americans are brought up as Christians than as not.

The bottom line is that although Christianity is by far the majority religion in the United States, the shift in religion beginning in the late teens resulted in a net flow of millions of Americans from Christianity to the unaffiliated.

Over the past 15 years, the share of American adults who identify as Christian (all varieties combined) has dropped 15 percentage points, from 78% to 63%. The proportion of non-conformists has increased proportionally by 1 point per year on average, rising from 16% to nearly 30%.

Our new study takes into account many complicating factors. For example, Christians have higher birth rates than non-Christians, which boosts Christian numbers, but not enough to offset the voluntary change. There is also some change that occurs later in life, after 30, although it still favors people not affiliated with religion.

The projections included in our study explore several scenarios, some of which are unrealistic but illuminating. For example, we modeled what would happen if there was a complete halt in immigration. (Spoiler alert: this would slow the growth of non-Christian religions but wouldn’t have much of an effect on Christians as a percentage of the population.)

Although Christianity is by far the majority religion in the United States, the shift in religion beginning in late adolescence resulted in a net flow of millions of Americans from Christianity to the unaffiliated.

We also imagined what would happen in the virtually impossible event that there was no more religious change in any direction after 2020. Even if no one changed their religion in the coming decades, the share of Christian Americans would continue to decline, and the share who are not affiliated would continue to increase. This is because Christians today are older, on average, than anyone. (A younger population will grow faster because it has more people of childbearing age and fewer at the end of life.)

All scenarios show some decline of Christians, and in some scenarios Christians could lose their majority status within decades. But the purpose of the projections is not to predict the demise of religion in general or Christianity in particular.

Looking at the experience of 80 countries, we find that the share of people who were brought up as Christians and who stray from Christianity has not exceeded 50% everywhere, even in very secular Western European countries. . For American Christians concerned about these trends, this could be the demographic good news of the day. If there really is a floor under Christian retention rates, the net movement from the Christian ranks to the religiously unaffiliated ranks may eventually come to a halt.

Demography is not inevitable when it comes to human choices. The patterns we see in religious change are the product of thousands of individual choices every day.

More broadly, demography is not inevitable when it comes to human choices. The patterns we see in religious change are the product of thousands of individual choices every day. Our projections are based on the trends we are currently observing. But as long as there is freedom of conscience in America, people can change their religious affiliation in unpredictable ways.

A version of this article was originally published by the Dallas Morning News on September 13, 2022.

Alan Cooperman is director of religion research at the Pew Research Center.

Sources

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2/ https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/09/29/religious-switching-patterns-will-help-determine-christianitys-course-in-u-s/

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