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UK government must stop being stupid

UK government must stop being stupid

 


Barack Obama famously said don’t do stupid things. (In fact, he had stronger words.) This is always good advice. That’s particularly good advice for Britain today. It would be great if you could start doing something sensible. But one must hold one’s hopes in check. But it should certainly be possible to stop doing really stupid things.

Brexit itself was stupid. Those with serious knowledge of the matter do not doubt it. It has raised barriers to the country’s closest neighbors and most important trading partners. As the Office for Budget Responsibility noted this month, the latest evidence suggests that Brexit has had a significant negative impact on UK trade. It reduced the overall trading volume and number of trading relationships between UK and EU companies. OBR makes a fairly reasonable assumption that Brexit would lower the UK’s trade intensity by 15% in the long run than if it had stayed in the EU. Meanwhile, global Britain evaporated as hopes for closer trade ties with China and the United States faded.

Brexit is silly, but so is the idea that there is a simple way to get back to a closer relationship with the EU. A renewed membership is unimaginable. This is not just because it will exacerbate Britain’s political civil war. It is also because EU member states are too sensible to trust that the UK will, and is likely to become, an enthusiastic member of the EU. From their point of view, Britain’s floundering is a useful lesson in the perils of exit. Importantly, Brexit has allowed the EU to develop more rapidly than it would have if it had been habitually hindered by the UK.

Most alternatives to full membership, such as joining a single market, customs union, or both, restart the Brexit civil war in both major parties. These options are clearly worse than membership, as they impose obligations without having a say in the rules. Moreover, once again, the EU has good reasons not to trust the UK. The European Union’s action on the Northern Ireland Protocol clearly demonstrates this.

Attempting to change the main characteristics of your current unhappy relationship is futile. But that doesn’t justify making things worse. For example, it is a fundamental conservative principle that we only make change when there are no good alternatives to it. Change is costly in itself. So what could that mean for an EU law bill that plans to review or revoke up to 4,000 of the EU-derived laws that shape much of national life today? This will only further increase uncertainty and the cost of doing business.

No sensible business wants to operate under various regulatory regimes. That was the logic of Margaret Thatchers single market project, which Brexiters still seem to be unable to understand. A plan of this kind should reduce UK investment potential. The grim statistics on UK investment don’t fool these fears.

What would be a positively rational approach for UK policymakers to take? It certainly started with a realistic view of weaknesses and priorities. Consider the difficulty of building on undeveloped land, the inability to make buildings energy efficient, persistent regional inequality, excessive centralization of government, chronically low rates of national savings and investment, and failure to invest in pension funds for productive capital. . It has long failed to build a country, world-scale company and raise its technology to a high enough level.

None of this has anything to do with the EU. But all of that was so difficult for a long time that I couldn’t do anything. So instead we have Brexit as a transition movement, culminating in the Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng show. It was Brexit as performance art in its purest form.

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I have little hope that this government will do anything positive before the next general election, especially in the midst of the energy and inflation crises. However, it would not be too much to ask them to stop doing stupid things. So don’t consider changing regulations unless it’s clearly for the better. Don’t promise control over migrations you can’t deliver. Don’t get hung up on options with differences in food standards that make Northern Ireland difficult to solve. But work hard to preserve the ability of our scientists to work closely with their European colleagues. And above all, stop the British Bulldog’s endless barking.

Now, it may be impossible to solve big problems. But even if the government is now in a deep bog, it may not dig any further.

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