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About: UK house prices down 1.4% in November

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UK house prices fell at their fastest pace in nearly two and a half years over the past month as September’s mini-budget disruption hit the sector hard.

According to figures released by the Nationwide Building Society, average home prices fell 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in November.

Following a 0.9% drop in October, this indicates that the housing market is cooling off after strong growth since the start of the pandemic.

Photo: Nationwide

It was the biggest monthly drop since June 2020 and dragged annual home price growth down to 4.4% in November from 7.2% in October.

UK house prices fell 1.4% in November compared to October, the biggest monthly drop since June 2020 – @AskNationwide

Annual home price growth slowed to 7.2% in October from 4.4% in November.

— Andy Bruce (@BruceReuters) December 1, 2022

Average property prices fell from 268,282 to 263,788 as mortgage rates soared, making it impossible for buyers to buy a home.

Photo: Nationwide

Nationwides chief economist Robert Gardner explains that the fallout from mini-budgets continued to affect markets over the past month.

While financial market conditions are stabilizing, new mortgage rates remain high and the market has lost significant momentum. At a time when household finances are already strained by high inflation, the ability to afford homes for prospective buyers and movers is much higher.

Data from the Bank of England this week showed a sharp drop in mortgage approvals in October after tight budgets drove up borrowing costs and wreaked havoc on markets.

Gardner expects the market to remain depressed next quarter.

Inflation is expected to remain high for some time and bank interest rates are likely to rise further as the Bank of England seeks to slow economic demand to ease domestic price pressures.

The outlook is uncertain and will depend a lot on how the broader economy performs, but a relatively soft landing is still possible.

However, he noted that long-term borrowing costs have fallen again in recent weeks and could ease further as investors lower their expectations of future rate hikes from the Bank of England.

On Monday, real estate website Zoopla reported that many home sellers were accepting bids below the asking price.


7am GMT: National Home Price Index for November

9am GMT: November Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI

9.30am GMT: UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November

10am GMT: Eurozone Unemployment Report

1.30pm GMT: US PCE Inflation Measurement

3pm GMT: US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for November

Updated on 02.20EST

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The US manufacturing sector contracted for the first time since June 2020.

Data provider S&P Global reported a decline in November production as new orders declined at a faster pace.

The US manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0 from 50.2 in October.

The recession was the steepest since May 2020, and was attributed to lower output and new orders, S&P Global added:

A further drop in new export orders weakened domestic and international market demand. Employment growth has slowed as the pressure on ability has decreased and the work backlog has shrunk significantly.

On a more positive note, the supply chain has improved for the first time since October 2019, and pricing pressure has eased due to lower input demand from businesses. Input costs have increased at the slowest rate in two years.

Breaking news: US ISM manufacturing PMI actual 49.0 (forecast 49.7, previous 50.2) $MACRO

— Breaking Market News (@financialjuice) Dec 1, 2022

On Wall Street, the S&P 500 index opened up 0.3%.

The stock index rose 11 points to 4,091.

U.S. stock index futures rose on Thursday after the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge for October showed inflation to have cooled, and a report suggests China may take steps to ease coronavirus restrictions to help the economy recover. Suggested being drunk: pic.

— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) Dec 1, 2022 Afternoon Recap

This is the main story of the day.

Strengthening energy pressures in Europe:

Chart of the day: Electricity prices in the Nordic region have jumped to high levels so far this week, overshadowing the tense situation in Germany, France and the UK. On a weekly average, Nordpool daily heads are just under 350 per MWh, the second highest on record for the week | #EnergyCrisis

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) December 1, 2022

Next has confirmed that it has acquired part of the assets of bankrupt fashion brand Joules for $34 million in partnership with founder Tom Joule.

Daum buys Joules headquarters for $7 million in cash.

Joules’ managers today will close 19 stores and cut 133 jobs.

John Coldham, retail partner at law firm Gowling WLG, says:

Next continues to make acquisitions while increasing its competitive advantage by building the strong stability of a well-respected brand across homewares and fashion.

The global interest in the Joules brand during the bidding process demonstrates the reach that Next can achieve domestically as well as internationally. Retail is an unforgiving environment right now, but a strong brand is one of the keys to encouraging consumers to keep coming back.

Updated on 09.43EST

The pound continues to rally against the dollar as well as against the euro.

The pound rose above $1.22 against the US$ today. Highest level since early August. Part of this seems to be about a weaker dollar, but it’s worth noting that the pound has also risen to nearly 1.17 against the euro.

— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) December 1, 2022

The US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator has slowed.

The PCE index, which measures the purchase price of domestic goods and services, rose 6% in the 12 months to November from 6.3% in October.

Core PCE slowed to 5% from 5.2%, which may reassure central bank policymakers that recent rate hikes are cooling inflationary pressures.

The Fed’s preferred #inflation gauge rose at a slower pace in November, with PCE +6% vs. +6.3% in October. Core rates have also slowed. Unemployment claims have retreated to 225,000 from a three-month high of -16,000. #DOW +15

— Jason Brooks (@brookskcbsradio) December 1, 2022

Core PCE: 3-month average increase of 4.8%, 4.984% year-over-year increase. A sequential slowdown in one of the Fed’s key policy variables. My sense is that it is about 4% sticky. And everyone should start looking at services other than housing going forward.

— Joseph Bruceuelas (@joebruuelas) December 1, 2022

US Treasury yields fall after PCE data; 10-year yield 3.576%, down 12.50 BPS on the day

Bio’s stock news alert

— Yelpful Stock Alerts (@FastestAlert) Dec 1, 2022 US Weekly Jobless Claims Decrease

Few Americans filed new claims for unemployment assistance last week.

The initial number of claims received in the week through November 26 was 225,000, down from 241,000 in the preceding seven days.

However, the number of people who received support for at least two weeks increased by more than 110,000 to 1,337,838.

Susannah Streeter, senior investment and market analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the wave of industrial activity is having a severe impact on UK businesses.

She points out that the problem will only pile up as new strikes hit the UK in December.

Already in October, one in eight companies said they were affected by the strike (see previous post). The toxic combination of rail and postal strikes is wreaking havoc on businesses, with a quarter of affected businesses unable to get the supplies they need to do business.

Another 24% of businesses said they were unable to fully operate and 23% said they could not get the services they needed.

Sarah Butler takes over collapsed fashion chain Joules under next administration

Next bought the collapsed fashion chain Joules from administration, saving more than 100 stores and hundreds of jobs, the Guardian understands.

According to sources, Next made a last-minute bid in the early hours of Thursday, beating a bid made by South African Foschini Group, owner of Hobbs and Whistles.

Joules put 1,600 jobs and the future of the retailer’s 132 stores at risk after failing to secure emergency funding last month by calling in managers. The store continues to trade, with managers at Interpath Advisory saying they will be evaluating options for businesses.

Joules, best known for its jackets and patterned Wellington boots, struggled for months with declining sales. The slowdown in trade is due to a cost of living crisis and a dry, hot summer in the UK that has reduced demand for luxury wells.

Bloomberg’s John Stepek points out that UK house price growth is lagging annual inflation.

UK house prices fell 1.4% last month. It’s the second monthly drop, at least according to Nationwide.

And excluding the period in 2020 when the housing market was basically shut down, it recorded the biggest monthly decline since February 2009. Of course, it was after the financial crisis.

So a pretty big fall. This means that house prices are only 4.4% higher than last November (this is just a nominal number – if you factor in inflation well over 10%, it’s already a big drop in real terms).

Updated on 07.53EST

Looking back at the decline in house prices this morning, Nathan Emerson, CEO of Propertymark, a UK-based agency specializing in real estate brokers, says the market is recalibrating.

Our agents report a readjustment in the market as housing competition begins to slow, so it’s no surprise that house price growth is also slowing accordingly.

This knock-on effect seen in achieved prices is positive as we need to see this stabilize and return to a more realistic and sustainable market. However, prices are still higher than last year and with stamp duty caps rising, it is still a good time to buy or sell properties.

Next up is the acquisition of bankrupt fashion retailer Joules, Sky News says.

Disclosed: Next struck a deal to take fashion retailer Joules out of management, beating rival bidder Foschini Group at the last minute of a difficult auction process.

— Mark Kleinman (@MarkKleinmanSky) December 1, 2022




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