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Chinese surveillance balloon is just the latest setback in strained US-China relationsExBulletin

Chinese surveillance balloon is just the latest setback in strained US-China relationsExBulletin

 


President Biden with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit, November 14, 2022, in Bali, Indonesia. Alex Brandon/AP .

Toggle legend Alex Brandon/AP

President Biden with Chinese President Xi Jinping before a meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit, November 14, 2022, in Bali, Indonesia.

Alex Brandon/AP

Sometimes gifts just appear in the sky.

A purported Chinese spy balloon seen floating about 11 miles above Montana this week may be just one for the Biden administration. Or it could further aggravate strained bilateral relations between Washington and Beijing.

The discovery of what the Pentagon called a “high-altitude surveillance balloon” came at a crucial time in US-China relations, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken was preparing to make the first trip to China of a Secretary of State for more than four years. .

The administration on Friday postponed the visit, which was intended to build on a November agreement between President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to deepen engagement and prevent strained ties from worsening.

The ball potentially increases the imperative for Beijing to do so.

“I don’t think the incident itself will improve bilateral relations, but if the Chinese prioritize engagement and improving relations, it would be more of an incentive for them to keep their promises,” Yun said. Sun, senior fellow at the Stimson Center think tank.

China-US relations are at their worst in decades, strained by numerous issues including microchips, human rights, tariffs and Taiwan. In recent weeks, however, observers say Beijing has softened its diplomatic rhetoric and sent what some interpret as open signals to thaw ties with the United States and other Western countries.

Just a “civilian airship” of course

On Friday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry confirmed that the balloon belonged to them, but called it a “civilian airship used for research purposes, mainly for meteorological purposes”, which had derailed. And the ministry expressed rare “regret” for the incident.

“The way they phrased the response is a big step up from their previous harsh rhetoric about the United States,” Sun said. “If they want it [Blinken] trip to reschedule and for things to get back on track they will have to deliver something to motivate.”

It remains to be seen what this incentive could be. Susan Shirk, a professor at the University of California, San Diego and author of the book Overreach: How China Derailed its Peaceful Rise, says the next few days will be pivotal.

“I think what we’re going to be looking to see in the next week or two is whether or not the United States was able to reschedule this trip and how the Chinese react to the cancellation,” Shirk said. “I think they will take a fairly low-key approach and try to get the trip back on the schedule as quickly as possible.”

On Friday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that national security officials had “communicated directly with the Chinese government about this on multiple levels.”

For his part, Blinken spoke with China’s top foreign policy official, Wang Yi, and said he “would be ready to visit Beijing as soon as conditions permit,” according to a statement from the Department of Foreign Affairs. ‘State.

If the visit can be rescheduled, Oriana Skylar Mastro, a fellow at Stanford University’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, says that could work in Blinken’s favor.

“It could set the stage for a better reunion than they could have had. It’s not like they [the Chinese] have high character now,” she said.

In search of a modus vivendi, but time is running out

American and Chinese flags fly at Genting Snow Park ahead of the 2022 Winter Olympics on February 2, 2022 in Zhangjiakou, China. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has postponed a planned high-stakes diplomatic weekend in China as the Biden administration considers a broader response to the discovery of a high-altitude Chinese balloon flying over sensitive sites in the west. the United States. Kiichiro Sato/AP .

Toggle Legend Kiichiro Sato/AP

American and Chinese flags fly at Genting Snow Park ahead of the 2022 Winter Olympics on February 2, 2022 in Zhangjiakou, China. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has postponed a planned high-stakes diplomatic weekend in China as the Biden administration considers a broader response to the discovery of a high-altitude Chinese balloon flying over sensitive sites in the west. the United States.

Kiichiro Sato/AP

In about a month, China will hold its annual session of parliament, excluding Chinese officials from the mix until mid-March.

And there are growing rumors that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will visit Taiwan in the spring. A trip to the self-governing island last August by McCarthy’s predecessor, Nancy Pelosi, sparked days of Chinese military exercises around Taiwan and prompted the Chinese government to suspend dialogue with the United States in several areas, especially the climate and the army.

The tension is already rising. A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said Thursday that China opposes any official interaction between the United States and Taiwan, over which Beijing claims sovereignty. McCarthy later responded by saying, “I don’t think China can tell me where to go anytime, anywhere.”

If Blinken cannot travel to Beijing before McCarthy travels to Taiwan, Stimson’s Sun says the trip may not happen at all as relations are likely to fall back into a deep freeze.

“The Chinese might think that, well, there’s no need for a visit anymore,” she says.

Even if Blinken can reschedule his trip, the hill to restore some semblance of stability in China-US relations is steep, according to Joshua Eisenman, an expert in Chinese foreign relations at the University of Notre Dame. In the coming months, campaigns will intensify for the presidential elections in Taiwan and the United States in 2024 and in both cases, China will certainly be a key issue.

“I know that sounds pretty pessimistic to say, and Americans like to hear optimism, but I don’t believe there’s a situation we can get into, at least in the short term, where we have anything. something called mutual strategic trust with China,” Eisenman said.

Beijing wants more stable foreign relations as it tries to revive the economy and adjust to life after three years of strict COVID-19 control policies. But it can only go so far, says Eisenman.

“The best thing we can seek to achieve is a modus vivendi in a post-‘COVID zero’ world to deal with difficult issues.”

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.npr.org/2023/02/03/1154235621/chinese-balloon-us-china-relations-blinken

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