We learned this morning how the government is struggling to keep its promise to reduce the national debt. However, news from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should boost morale in the top 10. Perhaps it can deliver on another promise of economic growth.
The IMF has revised its projected GDP growth figures once again and has good news for the UK. After the IMF halved its recession forecast for the UK last month but still predicted a contraction, following a fairly dramatic rise, the IMF has once again upgraded its forecast, forecasting 0.4% growth this year. Moreover, the UK has slipped from the bottom of the G7 growth race and now ranks higher than Germany, which the IMF predicts virtually zero growth.
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Unsurprisingly, the Treasury is taking advantage of the 0.7 percentage point upgrade in the IMF’s Article IV report. Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt said the IMF [the governments] Measures to restore stability and tame inflation’.
But just as more negative predictions shouldn’t be exaggerated, this one shouldn’t be exaggerated either. Negative forecasts from the IMF have always been a bit questionable, as the IMF has consistently underestimated UK growth, especially in the years following Brexit. On the other hand, the IMF reiterates the warnings of other forecasters that the transit time lag for rates means that all obstacles to growth are more likely to be tested in the second half of the year. That is, as the predicted value increases, it may also decrease.
This should serve as a reminder of what forecasting is: a screenshot of the current situation and an attempt to forecast for years to come (the IMF is still forecasting fairly sluggish growth). The round should confirm the forecast, and despite the headlines, IMF forecasts over the past six months have not been particularly dramatic outliers. The IMF has been forecasting slightly lower growth than the Office for Budget Responsibility and the Bank of England. Now we are predicting slightly more within the margin of error.
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Despite these forecast fluctuations, the picture is fairly clear. With any luck, the UK should see some growth this year. So the question remains. Will Rishi Sunak’s pledge to increase GDP hold? Based on the forecasts and data obtained so far for Q1, the answer is technically yes. However, people will feel the economy is growing because real wages are still taking a significant hit and despite wage increases, workers feel they are getting worse.
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