How reliable are UK migration statistics?

Statisticians are questioning the accuracy of official data underpinning UK government policymaking after recent immigration figures fell far short of analyst expectations.

Experts were baffled last week when the National Statistical Office reported that the number of net migrants would reach 606,000 in 2022. While this figure was a record in the UK, it also represented a relative leveling compared to the previous two quarters. Leap analysts expected.

While upward revisions to previous estimates have contributed to the gap between expectations and official figures, experts point to another factor. It’s a decision to reform the way ONS calculates migration data.

ONS is setting out to change that. [migration] Alan Manning, former chair of the Migration Advisory Committee, which advises governments, and a professor at the London School of Economics, said statistics are estimated and very transparent about them, but they are very complex and complex. I said technically.

Did the headline numbers go up because you changed your methodology or because of something fundamental?

Discrepancies between official figures and analyst forecasts have sparked debate among experts about whether Britain’s new methodology for supporting government policy is fit for purpose.

Net migration is calculated by estimating the number of people moving to the UK in at least one year, minus the number of long-term residents moving abroad.

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ONS based migration estimates on international passenger surveys previously conducted at airports such as Heathrow and Manchester. However, important gateways in other regions such as Luton and Leeds were ignored.

The department has long admitted that its approach is flawed. The data was removed from the National Statistical Approval Badge as the 2019 study found that it systematically underestimated the EU and overestimated non-EU net migration.

Starting in April 2021, ONS generated an migration dataset using administrative data such as visa and tax records, along with statistical modeling and other surveys.

Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at Oxford University, points out potential limitations of the new approach.

Managed data sources have many benefits, but they are also less transparent. There are many pesky technical issues that affect estimates in ways that are not always easy to predict.

Uncertainty about the accuracy of migration data presents problems for policymakers and statisticians who rely on it to generate population estimates between censuses.

Simon Briscoe, a former statistician on the House Public Administration Special Committee on Immigration, said the rough, ready-made figures used in the new data-gathering system mean little.

Precise figures are needed to have sensible policies to fill gaps in the labor market and ensure the NHS has enough staff, but we have yet to get them.

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ONS relies on a patchwork of data to estimate headline migration statistics. It is easiest to calculate a non-EU number, as people in this group require a visa, while many EU citizens have a settled status and therefore can travel without a visa.

However, ONS must reconcile the fact that the statistics do not include everyone for whom a visa has been issued. Some visa holders stay for less than a year, while others never come.

Measuring immigration from the UK is also difficult as people can leave before their visas expire.

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Recent changes to the methodology show how significantly changes in aggregation can have an impact on headline numbers.

Ukrainian refugees, for example, were previously considered long-term migrants. However, 39,000 are excluded from the latest estimate, based on data that some have been in the UK for less than a year.

Measuring asylum seekers is also difficult, as this group is usually not reflected in Home Office vigilance system data. They are included in migration statistics for the first time this year and are counted based on the number of recorded claims.

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ONS acknowledged that the method was obviously and under development, but insisted that it was confident that the statistic was the best estimate possible from the available data.

Many sources, including the 2021 Census, added that it was supported using methods developed in consultation with experts in the field.

These new methods are based on actual travel patterns, not the stated intentions of survey respondents. This gives a more accurate picture of overall migration, but it takes time to get a complete picture of people’s behavior.

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